In the sun-scorched waters of the Persian Gulf, a tiny speck of coral and limestone – just eight square miles in size – is the most dangerous piece of real estate on Earth right now.
Kharg Island. To the Iranian regime, it is the ‘Forbidden Island’, a fortress-like terminal that breathes life into the country’s dying economy. To Donald Trump, it is the ultimate bargaining chip.
The logic is as cold as it is compelling. Roughly 90 per cent of Iran‘s oil exports flow through this single island. If you control Kharg, you control the bank account of the Ayatollahs. By seizing it, Washington wouldn’t just be winning a battle; it would be holding the regime’s jugular in a velvet glove, and capable of squeezing until the rump of the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) finally capitulates.
But this is a gamble of historic proportions. If it pays off, it hastens the end of a wearying conflict. If it fails, it could become a quagmire that defines the Trump presidency.
The military blueprint for taking Kharg is, on paper, straightforward. The US possesses the ultimate ‘island-hopping’ tool: the Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU). Currently, the USS Tripoli is reportedly steaming from the Sea of Japan towards the Gulf, carrying attack helicopters, F-35 fighter jets and 2,200 Marines.
The plan? A lightning strike. While US air dominance has already softened the island’s defences, the Marines would likely arrive via a vertical envelopment – helicopters and tiltrotors screaming over the beaches – to overwhelm the IRGC defenders. There are no Iranian tank columns here, no endless deserts to traverse. This is not a ground invasion of the mainland. It is a surgical extraction of Iran’s economic heart.
However, taking the island is the easy part. Holding it is the nightmare. Kharg sits 15 miles off the Iranian coast, but to get there the MEU would have to run the gauntlet of the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most treacherous chokepoint – as would subsequent supply ships. The Iranians will almost certainly mine the waters and deploy suicide swarms of fast boats loaded with explosives.
For Trump, though, the biggest obstacle is the American voter. With the midterm elections looming in November, the President faces an uphill battle to convince a sceptical public that this is a ‘limited operation’.
Trump’s primary hurdle remains the American electorate. With November’s midterms approaching, he must convince a skeptical public that this ‘limited operation’ won’t spiral
Kharg Island is Iran’s primary maritime oil terminal and handles roughly 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports
Chinese President Xi Jinping attends the closing session of the National People’s Congress (NPC) at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing
The American collective memory is scarred by Persian misadventures. Voters recall the charred remains of helicopters in the desert during the 1979 hostage rescue shambles; they remember the IEDs of Iraq and the ‘forever war’ of Afghanistan.
The moment the first US helicopter clips a rotor, or a warship is scuttled by a mine, and American lives are lost by the dozen, public support will shrivel. For a President who promised to bring troops home, placing boots on Iranian soil is a hard sell that could cost him the House and the Senate.
Then there is the Red Dragon in the room. China is the primary customer for Iranian crude, and it will be watching the Tripoli’s progress with simmering fury. To Beijing, the warship’s mission looks to be to cut off the supply of Iranian oil to China. About 13 per cent of Chinese oil imports come from Iran – the loss would be especially damaging given that Trump closed Venezuelan taps to China when he captured leader Nicolas Maduro.
To China’s Xi Jinping, this is a provocation; to Trump, it is leverage. Were the US to seize Kharg, it would not want to damage its oil and gas infrastructure, so as to reassure China that the island remains operational. Why? Because Trump can use China’s oil supply to persuade Xi (and the pair will meet next month) to pressure the new Ayatollah to back down.
But the cost of Chinese ‘neutrality’ will be steep. Xi could demand a reduced US presence in the South China Sea in exchange for looking the other way at Kharg.
We must not underestimate the ‘suicidal’ nature of the Iranian regime’s potential response. It may choose to blow up its own infrastructure on Kharg rather than see it fall into Yankee hands. It may step up the mayhem its proxies in the region are causing.
During my time in Iraq, IRGC-backed militias ran rings around Western intelligence, attacking our forces with impunity and keeping it up until our political will to remain in the country dissolved.
Taking Kharg Island could be the masterstroke that ends the war by the midterms. But if the gamble fails, it won’t just be the Iranian economy that lies in ruins – it will, once again, be the credibility of the West.
Philip Ingram is a former British Army colonel and military intelligence specialist who served in Iraq.