Experts say feuding organised crime gangs who control vast swathes of the country realise it would be bad for business to turn the summer showpiece into a bloodbath
Drug cartels are unlikely to kick off at the World Cup in Mexico – after learning: “Don’t mess with the gringos.”
Experts say feuding organised crime gangs who control vast swathes of the country realise it would be bad for business to turn the summer showpiece into a bloodbath.
That would risk the wrath of US President Donald Trump who wants the tournament – which Mexico is hosting jointly with America and Canada – to be a resounding success.
Trump would then likely turn his attention to cleaning up Mexico like he did Venezuela – and had already threatened to send in troops to clean up the streets.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum plans to deploy 99,000 federal and private security forces to host cities Guadalajara, Monterrey and Mexico City during the tournament.
They will be armed with semi-automatic rifles and Tesla Cybertrucks after the killing of warlord Nemesio ‘El Mencho’ Oseguera by troops in February sparked 48 hours of tit-for-tat shootings.
The streets are plastered with posters of 15,000 missing people. Clandestine graves containing the remains of dozens have been found in the past year within 12 miles of Guadalajara’s World Cup stadium.
Despite the wave of violence, Sheinbaum declared: “It is safe to come to Mexico – a great deal of work has been done.”
Security experts and state officials reckon she may be right – but only because it is in the cartels’ interests to make it safe.
El Mencho’s Jalisco New Generation Cartel – aka CJNG – plans to flog drugs and prostitutes to visiting fans in its HQ city of Guadalajara and has much to lose from a Trumping.
One state official told the FT: “The city is safe because those guys put all their money here, and they stand to make even more. They don’t want a war here.”
Huge profits earned elsewhere from drug trafficking are laundered in Guadalajara, where they have helped to power a real estate boom.
The city boasts a rash of shiny new skyscrapers, open-air shopping malls and clubs, bars and restaurants. While there may be sporadic violence during the World Cup, few believe the cartel would deliberately target tourists and risk upsetting Trump.
Ulises Vargas, an academic at the University of Guadalajara, said the cartels would expect a ‘crushing’ US response to ‘any kind of systematic violence’ this summer.
“Mexican organised crime has learnt lessons from history and one of the biggest is that you don’t mess with the gringos,” he added.
Ex-FBI Arturo Fontes, who did two stints in Guadalajara, said: “I don’t think the cartels are that stupid. I believe things are going to be fairly safe for the World Cup, and they act up again after.”
Former Guadalajara police chief Carlos Mercado said: “The city enjoys what we call ‘a criminal peace’.
“If someone steps out of line they take him out to avoid attracting too much attention.”
Hotel occupancy for the World Cup has recovered from a 30% drop after El Mencho’s shooting. Local hotelier José Juan González said some were preparing to discount their rates to attract clients.
“We had big expectations about the World Cup and the hope is that we can recover them,” he said.
The three million tourists expected to visit Guadalajara this summer were more likely to be customers than victims of the cartels, security analysts said.
Cocaine and marijuana are routinely sold by the cartel in bars around the city, while illicit alcohol, tobacco and vapes show up in shops.
The group also controls prostitution rings and has directly targeted foreigners in fraud schemes involving timeshare resorts.
Fernando Jiménez Sánchez, a Guadalajara-based security researcher, said: “All these opportunities will expand during the World Cup.
“It is going to be a very good few weeks for criminal businesses.”