British families face a summer of travel chaos as volatile oil prices see airfares soar and flights cancelled – along with long delays at airports due to new EU border rules which could become ‘significantly worse’ over the coming months.
Jet fuel supplies from the Middle East have been disrupted since the US-Israeli war with Iran began due to Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz shipping route.
Some airlines have already begun hiking fares and reducing services because of their reliance on imported fuel amid warnings a ‘systemic’ shortage could be on the way.
Analysts say higher jet fuel prices can be quicker to pass through to fares than road fuel and household energy costs, meaning the impact on price is already being seen -as seat prices have risen by around a fifth and are likely to go up further this summer.
Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist at Wealth Club, predicted the aviation industry faced an ‘extraordinary period’ and warned of a ‘growing chance that leisure flights could start being cancelled from May’ if insufficient fuel can be sourced.
The latest average global jet fuel cost was $198 per barrel last week – double the $99 in late February when the war began, the International Air Transport Association said.
Today, European airlines urged the EU to step in with emergency measures due to the conflict causing widespread airspace closures and concerns over jet fuel shortages.
Global schedules for April have been cut by about 5 per cent compared with earlier plans, according to estimates by investment bank BNP Paribas. Most reductions are in the Middle East, but smaller cuts have also emerged in Europe, Asia and the US.
Meanwhile families with young children have been stranded abroad due to the new Entry/Exit System (EES) which requires travellers from third-party countries, including the UK, to have their fingerprints and photos taken as they enter the Schengen area.
Further checks take place when they leave, and because these can take hours, some travellers have been stuck at passport control after their flights have already left.
Passengers travelling across Europe were hit by delays and cancellations over the weekend with long queues forming at destinations including Geneva, Lisbon and Malta – while others faced two-hour waits yesterday in Brussels and Amsterdam.
Rory Boland, editor of Which? Travel, said delays caused by the EES could be ‘significantly worse over the summer’, and urged travellers concerned about jet fuel shortages to book a package holiday, which should be refunded if a flight is axed.
Passengers left behind at Milan Linate Airport on Sunday due to the border control chaos
The rollout of the EU’s new Entry/Exit System causes delays at Brussels Airport yesterday
These new biometric Entry/Exit System machines have been set up at Malaga Airport in Spain
A ship waits in Oman to pass through the Strait of Hormuz on April 8 as the Iran war continues
He told the Daily Mail: ‘We have already seen major delays and long queues for UK travellers heading to popular European destinations this Easter due to EES entry requirements. This will be significantly worse over the summer if nothing changes.
‘There are some things you can do to minimise risk, like making sure your phone is charged in case you need to let your hotel or car hire firm know you will be late.
‘On departure, consider arriving to the airport earlier so you can clear both the security line and the subsequent passport check, where there can also be long queues.
‘Airports must continue to suspend EES checks when queues become many hours long. It’s not fair for travellers to pay the price for them not being prepared.’
On jet fuel shortages, he added: ‘If a package holiday or a flight is cancelled then you should get a refund, although you might lose out if you had a hotel booked separately from the flight. It is always safer to book a package, otherwise you are left relying on travel insurance which often has unexpected loopholes.’
Paul Charles, chief executive of travel consultancy The PC Agency, told the Daily Mail: ‘Travellers certainly have plenty of challenges to cope with currently, with new entry/exit rules in the EU and concerns growing over whether flights will be running in the summer due to jet fuel shortages.
‘I think the peak difficult period for the new EES system in Europe, which involves you giving your fingerprint and biometric details, will be in July and August when many families are travelling.
‘If they haven’t already registered at a European airport, each member of the family will have to have their picture and fingerprints taken, a process which can easily be one minute per person. So you can imagine how long it may take to process a full aircraft of 180 people, hence the likelihood of long queues.
‘My advice is, if possible, for travellers to try and do a quick trip to Europe in the quieter, less busy season of late April or mid-May, in order to register and have their biometrics taken, and then the process will be much easier the next time they go into Europe.’
Speaking about jet fuel, Mr Charles said: ‘We shall see how jet fuel demand changes in the coming months but a lot of jet fuel for UK airlines comes in from the US and Europe, and there are still plentiful supplies from those regions.
‘Airline planning teams are currently assessing whether any of their destinations will be worse affected by fuel supply issues, and then they will either have to take the decision to ferry in more fuel so they have enough to fly back to the UK with, or stop flying to that destination at all.
‘There’s no need for people to worry at this stage if they have a flight booked, or are planning to book, as the airline would of course have to offer a credit or refund if that flight didn’t run for the reason of no fuel being available.’
But he also pointed out: ‘Of course, some of these concerns will translate into more UK holidaymakers choosing the UK for trips as well, which will be a boost for the staycation market. Already we are seeing signs of UK hotels and other accommodation being heavily booked for the May – October period.’
Ms Streeter said today: ‘The aviation industry is bracing for an extraordinary period ahead, with jet fuel shortages looming and route disruption expected.
‘The UK is particularly vulnerable to a jet fuel crisis, given its reliance on exports from Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. The last pre-crisis shipments have now arrived from the Middle East and the countdown is on before supply risks emerge.
‘There’s a growing chance that leisure flights could start being cancelled from May if carriers are unable to source enough fuel from other producing nations.
‘It’s going to be a challenge given other countries are also on the hunt for new suppliers, and it seems highly likely that prices will ramp higher as demand shoots up.
‘Airline seat prices have already risen by around a fifth and are likely to become more expensive as the busy summer season approaches.’
Industry group Airlines for Europe (A4E) wants the EU to introduce crisis response measures including EU-level monitoring of jet fuel supplies, a temporary suspension of the EU’s carbon market for aviation and scrapping certain aviation taxes.
The aviation sector has been hit by airspace closures since the war began, with the European Union Aviation Safety Agency banning European airlines from operating in the airspace of several Gulf countries, including the UAE and Qatar until April 24.
The A4E has urged Brussels to consider joint EU purchasing of kerosene, a form of jet fuel. The EU introduced joint natural gas buying to try to shore up supplies, after Russia slashed gas deliveries to Europe in 2022, but the model has not been applied to oil or kerosene so far.
A4E, whose members include Lufthansa, Air France-KLM and easyJet, also urged the EU to amend its legal requirement for countries to maintain 90 days of emergency oil reserves as this currently does not include a specific requirement on jet fuel.
A document from the organisation seen by Reuters also asked for clarification on existing legislation, including confirmation that airspace closures due to conflict and resulting operational effects will be considered as justified non-use of slots.
The European Commission has said it will propose a package of measures on April 22 to attempt to offset the fallout of the Iran war in energy markets, but has not confirmed if this will include specific measures on jet fuel.
European Commission spokeswoman Anna-Kaisa Itkonen said today: ‘There is no evidence for fuel shortages in the European Union at present, but supply issues could occur in the near future in particular for jet fuels. That remains our primary concern.’
Airports Council International (ACI), a trade body which represents more than 600 airports, has warned over a ‘systemic’ shortage of jet fuel ahead of the peak summer season if the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen in the weeks ahead.
In a letter to the European commissioners for energy and transport and tourism, ACI director-general Olivier Jankovec wrote: ‘At this stage, we understand that if the passage through the Strait of Hormuz does not resume in any significant and stable way within the next three weeks, systemic jet fuel shortage is set to become a reality for the EU.
‘The fact that we are entering the peak summer season… is only adding to those concerns.’
The ACI said jet fuel supply for the next six months needs to be urgently monitored by the European Commission, including identifying action that can be taken to increase production within the EU.
It also asked them to consider temporarily lifting restrictions and regulations that limit the ability to import jet fuel.
‘This crisis has exposed the reduced refining capacity of the EU for jet fuel production, and its acute dependence on imports from other world regions,’ Mr Jankovec warned.
Ryanair’s boss Michael O’Leary said earlier this month that if the war continues, then there was a risk of ‘disruptions in Europe in May and June’, adding that ‘maybe 10 per cent, 20 per cent, 25 per cent of our supplies might be at risk’.
Sir Keir Starmer has visited allies in the Gulf for talks on how to support what he described as a ‘fragile’ ceasefire between the US and Iran, which was agreed last week.
He spoke to US President Donald Trump about the need for a ‘practical plan’ to get shipping going through the Strait of Hormuz amid suggestions Tehran wants to charge vessels for passage.
Shye Gilad, a former airline captain who now teaches at Georgetown University’s business school in the US, said: ‘Volatility is the real story here. Right now, the airlines are trying to make bets on what they think will happen in the future.’
Major carriers are better positioned to endure the spike in fuel prices than budget carriers because they have less flexibility because of their ‘no frills’ models.
Bigger airlines can use dynamic pricing, sell more seats at higher fares or swap in larger planes on certain routes, letting them cut flights without losing total capacity.
Mr Gilad added: ‘Leisure travellers and budget conscious travellers are going to absolutely feel it first because it may make the difference between going and not going.’
It comes as Mr Trump’s blockade of Iranian ports came into effect, with the President threatening to ‘eliminate’ Tehran’s fast attack vessels if they come near American warships.
Sir Keir will chair Cabinet this morning, where the conflict and its fallout are likely to feature high on the agenda.
He has refused to back the operation and was instead working with French President Emmanuel Macron to bring together an international coalition aimed at securing future freedom of navigation in the strait, a vital route for global oil and gas supplies from the Gulf.
Separately, Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy met with US vice president JD Vance and secretary of state Marco Rubio in Washington DC where they discussed the current crisis in the strait.
Amid a fragile ceasefire, Mr Lammy is understood to have highlighted the role the UK is playing in the international effort to ensure shipping can pass freely through the maritime pinchpoint.
Meanwhile British travellers are suffering long queues due to the new EU border rules.
One passenger in Amsterdam described ‘elderly people and parents with toddlers’ waiting in line for passport gates, ‘hardly any’ of which were open. The airport’s website confirmed there were ‘long delays’.
In heatwave-hit Milan, airline passengers were left vomiting and passing out after waiting for up to three hours on Sunday night.
Around 100 easyJet customers were abandoned at Linate airport while waiting to board the flight to Manchester after the crew decided to leave without them.
EasyJet said the situation was ‘outside of our control’ and issues with the EU’s new border scheme had caused the delays, adding that the hold-ups were ‘unacceptable’.
Aviation expert Sally Gethin said the rollout of EES ‘wasn’t going well’, telling the Mail: ‘It’s proving a bumpy ride and a massive headache for travellers.’
Ms Gethin said many flyers were ‘confused’ about the scheme and believes the UK Government could have done more to educate them. ‘The UK Government has come in for criticism for not raising enough awareness,’ she said.
Separately, a report found travel spending has fallen for the first time since Covid lockdowns as the Middle East war and a squeeze on finances hit demand.
Transactions related to airlines, public transport and travel agents dropped 3.3 per cent in March, according to fresh card data from Barclays.
Conflict in the Middle East has caused consumers to worry that their holidays will be disrupted with 11 per cent of those surveyed cancelling plans, researchers added.
Travel agents were hit the hardest in the sector last month as transactions fell 4.6 per cent, followed by a 4.1 per cent drop for airlines and a 2.9 per cent decrease for public transport firms, Barclays said.
This was the first time travel spending had dropped since March 2021, when the country was still subject to rules limiting international travel.
There are fears that airlines may soon be hit with jet fuel shortages if disruption to suppliers using the Strait of Hormuz continues.
It comes as the boss of Heathrow warned of an ‘uncertain’ outlook even as Britain’s biggest airport saw its busiest ever March. The conflict contributed to a boost in passenger numbers.
The airport saw 6.6million passengers last month, a 6.9 per cent increase from last year, as airport closures in places like Dubai and Doha forced travellers to fly through London.
But Heathrow chief executive Thomas Woldbye added: ‘While Heathrow’s long-haul network absorbed demand in March, the outlook for the next few months remains uncertain.’
It comes as air passenger duty (APD) rates, which are based on the length of the flight and the class of cabin, increased from April 1.
Airlines have long called for APD – which is imposed on flights from most UK airports – to be reduced or cut, claiming this would lead to an increase in demand for travel.
Reform UK has pledged to abolish the duty on short-haul flights for families travelling with children if it wins the next election, branding it a ‘family holiday tax’ and saying the party’s policy would save families £45 on international flights or £48 for domestic flights.
Passengers travelling in economy are now being charged £8 for a domestic flight and £15 for a short-haul flight, up to 2,000 miles.
After the latest increases, the APD rate is now £102 for long-haul flights – 2,001 to 5,500 miles – and £106 for ultra long-haul flights – more than 5,500 miles.
Those flying in premium cabins are now charged £16 for a domestic flight, £32 for a short-haul flight, £244 for a long-haul flight and £253 for an ultra long-haul flight.
Private jet passengers face a rate of £142 for domestic or short-haul flights, £1,097 for long-haul flights and £1,141 for ultra long-haul flights.