Airlines have cut two million seats from May schedules within the past two weeks as concerns build that the Iran war could cut jet fuel supplies to ‘critically low levels’.
Iran resumed hostilities last night, launching missiles at US ships and oil storage sites in the United Arab Emirates – causing another spike in the price of crude. However, airlines have already begun taking action in anticipation that the conflict will continue.
The total number of seats available across all global carriers in May has fallen from 132million to 130million between mid and late April, according to analytics firm Cirium.
Gulf airlines such as Qatar, Etihad and Emirates have been worst-hit by Middle East airspace closures and airport disruption since February 28 as well as rising fuel costs.
European operators Lufthansa, Air France-KLM and SAS have also cut schedules in recent weeks – while US airline Spirit has gone out of business following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 per cent of global crude supply passes.
Lufthansa had the most seat cancellations after cutting 20,000 flights between May and October, with Air China second after axing internal services, reported the FT.
Ryanair boss Michael O’Leary has warned rivals of Europe’s biggest airline are now ‘desperately’ searching for flights to cancel and are expected to do so within weeks.
It comes as a fragile truce in the Middle East was under strain this morning after the US and Iran exchanged fire in the Gulf while wrestling for control of the strait.
The American military said yesterday that it destroyed six Iranian small boats, as well as cruise missiles and drones, after President Donald Trump sent the US Navy to escort stranded tankers through the strait in a campaign he called ‘Project Freedom’.
The average global jet fuel price increased for the first time in a month last week to $181 (£134) per barrel, according to new International Air Transport Association data.
This 1 per cent week-on-week rise followed three consecutive weeks of decline after a peak of $209 (£155) at the start of April – up from $99 (£73) at the end of February.
Meanwhile investment bank Goldman Sachs warned Britain is particularly vulnerable to jet fuel shortages amid a rationing risk as supplies could fall to ‘critically low levels’.
Smoke billows from Fujairah oil industry zone in the UAE yesterday following a drone attack
Vessels are anchored in the Strait of Hormuz off Bandar Abbas in southern Iran yesterday
A note seen by The Times claimed the European jet fuel supply was facing ‘extreme tightness’ because of the Strait of Hormuz’s closure – with the UK ‘most exposed’ to the crisis because of high reliance on imports, poor refining capacity and low stocks.
Goldman Sachs said: ‘The UK is the largest net importer of jet fuel in Europe, and it holds no strategic reserves, leaving commercial inventories as the primary buffer.
‘As a result, inventories in some countries, especially the UK, could fall to critically low levels, increasing the likelihood of rationing measures.’
Britain now has only four operating oil refineries – Fawley in Hampshire, Stanlow in Cheshire, Humber in Lincolnshire and Pembroke in Wales – after the closure of Grangemouth in Scotland in April 2025 and Lindsey in Lincolnshire last August.
Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, claimed today that breaches of the four-week-old ceasefire by the US and its allies had endangered shipping and energy transit through the strait.
‘We know well that the continuation of the current situation is unbearable for the United States, while we have not even begun yet,’ he said.
Several merchant ships in the Gulf reported explosions or fires yesterday, and an oil port in the UAE, which hosts a large US military base, was set ablaze by Iranian missiles.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has effectively closed the strait with threats of mines, drones, missiles and fast attack craft, while the US has responded by blockading Iranian ports.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said yesterday’s events showed there was no military solution to the crisis. He added that peace talks were progressing with Pakistan’s mediation, and warned the US and the UAE against being drawn into a ‘quagmire’.
Yesterday, the European Commission warned that airlines and member countries should prepare for all scenarios as uncertainty continues over supplies.
Spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen told a briefing in Brussels: ‘I don’t think anyone knows how long this situation will last, so the best we can do and the most effective thing that we can do and that we are doing is to prepare for all eventualities.’
She added that the commission will issue guidance to airlines this week, including on anti-tankering rules, passenger rights and using US-type Jet A fuel in Europe.
In the UK, the Government has now introduced a temporary rule change allowing airlines to group passengers from different flights together on to fewer planes as part of plans to save fuel.
This could see passengers moved from the service they originally booked to a similar one to reduce the amount of wasted fuel from flying planes that have not sold out and might have been cancelled.
But the move has been criticised by consumer group Which? who said rules should not be ‘bent in favour of airlines’.
Rory Boland, editor of Which? Travel, said: ‘Existing rules already allow airlines to move customers to new flights so long as they give them more than 14 days’ notice and offer the choice between a new flight or a refund.
‘It’s only for cancellations within 14 days that compensation is payable, rightly.
‘It’s not fair for the rules to now be bent in favour of airlines and potentially leave passengers holding the bill.
‘Many passengers will understand that disruptions can occur and may be happy to travel a few hours or a day later, but for those on short trips or connecting flights it could mean the trip is no longer worthwhile.
‘Before any changes are made, passengers need cast-iron assurances that their rights will not be weakened and that airlines cannot use reform as cover to shift the cost of disruption on to travellers.’
The Conservatives have also criticised the plan, with shadow transport secretary Richard Holden saying families could find themselves ‘herded on to a different plane, at a time of the airline’s choosing’.
‘The honest message is that Britain is exposed to fuel supply risks that a properly energy-secure country would not face,’ he added.
Donald Trump (pictured during a White House summit with small business owners yesterday) sent the Navy to escort stranded tankers through the strait in his ‘Project Freedom’ campaign
The Prime Minister warned last week that Britons may need to change their summer holiday plans because of the jet fuel crisis.
Sir Keir Starmer said people might rethink ‘where they go on holiday this year’ if the war continues to impact airlines.
His intervention went further than the Government’s current messaging, which is that there is ‘no current need to change upcoming travel plans’.
And Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander insisted on Sunday that summer holiday plans will not face major disruption because of jet fuel shortages, adding that more fuel has been imported from the US while refineries have upped their production.
The Government has also reminded air passengers of their rights, including when facing long delays or cancellations, in a bid to protect summer holidays from disruption.
Passengers experiencing flight cancellations can expect to receive a refund or be re-routed on another service, while those facing long delays have a right to receive care and assistance, the Department for Transport (DfT) said.
In a briefing document, the department said passengers experiencing cancellations are entitled to a choice between a refund or to be rerouted on another service, in which case airlines have to offer a comparable alternative.
Passengers experiencing cancellations and passengers facing delays of at least two hours on a short flight, three hours on a medium-haul and four hours on a long flight, have a right to care and assistance.
A tugboat sails near a ship in the Strait of Hormuz off Bandar Abbas in southern Iran yesterday
Stanlow oil refinery in Ellesmere Port, pictured last week, is Britain’s second largest refinery
The DfT said this can include offering vouchers for a reasonable amount of food and drink, refunds for the cost of calls, accommodation, and transport to and from the accommodation when a flight is cancelled.
The International Energy Agency has called it the world’s largest oil output disruption and warned on April 16 that Europe had six weeks of jet fuel left before shortages begin.
Yesterday, Chevron chairman and chief executive Mike Wirth warned physical shortages in oil supply would begin appearing around the world because of the closure of the strait.
The boss of the US energy corporation said economies will begin shrinking, first in Asia, as demand adjusts to reduced supply with the strait still shut because of the war.
‘We will start to see physical shortages,’ Mr Wirth said, noting that surplus supply in commercial markets, tankers in so-called shadow fleets avoiding sanctions, and national strategic reserves were being absorbed.
‘Demand needs to move to meet supply,’ he added. ‘Economies are going to have to slow.’