Despite all the noise about immigration, the issue falls behind the cost of living and the state of the NHS when voters are asked to pick out what is most important to them
The verdict from our poll makes for grim reading for Keir Starmer.
Ahead of the local elections, Reform is sustaining its lead in England, while over in Wales, Reform and Plaid Cymru’s tussle could push Labour into third place. In Scotland, the SNP is well ahead, and Nigel Farage’s party is coming up behind Labour.
In a sign of wider dissatisfaction, no political leader is viewed positively by voters. Kemi Badenoch fares best on -2, with Nigel Farage on -3, Ed Davey and Zack Polanski on -8, and Keir Starmer on -44.
If you dig into what is on voters’ minds, the cost of living is by far their biggest concern. Despite all the noise about immigration, the issue falls behind people’s finances and the state of the NHS when you ask them to pick out what is most important to them ahead of the local elections.
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The good news for Labour is that it has diagnosed this problem. For months, the Prime Minister has been saying that the cost of living is his number one priority. Interventions have been made to freeze rail fares and prescription charges, the national minimum wage has gone up, energy bills have been cut.
The bad news for Mr Starmer is that voters aren’t feeling this – and they blame the Government. The Iran war has stamped out the green shoots of economic recovery Rachel Reeves had been hoping for, and derailed the PM’s attempts to focus on the domestic agenda.
And things are going to get worse as Iran maintains its chokehold over the Strait of Hormuz. The energy price cap is keeping bills down for now but wholesale prices have rocketed, leaving families bracing for impact.
Food prices are predicted to be 50% higher in November than at the start of the cost of living crisis in 2021. The threat of jet fuel shortages looms over people’s summer holidays.
Labour must show it understands these pressures and is prepared to act as it seeks to overcome what looks set to be a devastating set of local elections. The political temperature is white-hot at the moment, with MPs openly questioning Mr Starmer’s leadership and whispers of plots from rivals dominating the agenda.
Some insiders hope these results are already priced in. But I suspect the grim reality will hit people hard on Friday, and it is anyone’s guess right now how that plays out.
But the party must not lose sight of what matters most to voters in whatever comes next.