Polls have closed in local and devolved elections that could mark the beginning of the end of Sir Keir Starmer‘s time as Prime Minister.
Labour is expected to take a brutal pummelling at the hands of voters in 136 areas of England, as well as a stuffing in elections to the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Senedd.
Party activists have been given astonishing advice to avoid being seen crying on television as results trickle in overnight, through Friday and into Saturday.
Labour is predicted to lose up to 1,800 council seats, while its 27-year grip on power in Wales is set to slip as it is overtaken by Plaid and Reform.
In Scotland Labour is on course to remain the third party at Holyrood as the SNP retains power.
But a strong night of results for Nigel Farage‘s Reform UK could see it become the main opposition north of the border, as well as picking up hundreds of English council seats.
If results are as bad as expected for Labour it will significantly ratchet up the pressure on Sir Keir, and also on those senior Labour figures linked with a run to replace him.
Three party big hitters are said to be poised to try to take his place; his former deputy Angela Rayner, Health Secretary Wes Streeting and Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester.
Meanwhile, Sir Keir’s allies have been drawing up a desperate survival strategy for the immediate aftermath – including a speech promoting closer ties with the EU.
If results are as bas as expected for Labour it will increase the pressure on Sir Keir, and also on those senior Labour figures linked with a run to replace him
Nigel Farage boasted at a campaign rally in St Helens, Merseyside, that Labour would be ‘wiped out’ in Red Wall areas in the North and the Midlands
Labour deputy leader Lucy Powell struck a downbeat tone after the polls closed, saying: ‘These elections are tough and took place in a difficult context.
‘After over a decade of Britain being held back, working people up and down the country rightly want to see the whole of our United Kingdom firing on all cylinders in their interests.
‘Labour has started to deliver on that promise and we are determined to make it happen everywhere for everyone.’
Government sources said the premier is planning to give a major speech on Monday, where he could try to appease mutinous MPs by pledging to go further in unwinding Brexit.
There is also ongoing wrangling within Downing Street over whether to launch a reshuffle on Saturday, potentially before the final results are even in.
One aide told the Daily Mail the idea was getting a ‘lot of traction’ and any overhaul would need to be complete before Sir Keir’s speech.
But they suggested the PM was too weak to make any big moves, and Angela Rayner is still in negotiations with HMRC over unpaid tax.
‘What’s the point of a reshuffle if you’re just going to sack Liz Kendall and Peter Kyle,’ they said. ‘It doesn’t move the dial.’
The PM’s rivals have been holding fire to see the scale of the meltdown.
A More in Common poll has suggested the party will be ousted from its Birmingham City Council bastion by Reform, while the Greens are looking at huge gains in London.
Many suspect the outpouring of emotion will be great enough to sweep Sir Keir out of power – even though there is no consensus around a successor.
Alongside Ms Rayner’s ongoing tax issues, Mr Burnham is not even in the Commons currently and would have to win a Westminster seat in a by-election before running.
The elections look set to shake the foundations of Britain’s two-party system, with voters set to vent their anger with Labour and the Conservatives by backing Reform and the Greens in large numbers.
Almost 25,000 candidates are fighting to be elected to more than 5,000 seats on 136 councils across England.
In Scotland, all 129 seats are up for election at Holyrood while voters in Wales will choose 96 members of the Senedd.
Nigel Farage boasted at a campaign rally in St Helens, Merseyside, that Labour would be ‘wiped out’ in Red Wall areas in the North and the Midlands.