‘Throwing the dice and gambling on new management is at least a plan. MPs want Cabinet Ministers to lead the revolt whereas Cabinet Ministers want backbenchers to rise up’
First a few straws for Labour’s drowning men and women to clutch.
Every local authority gained by Reform UK is a target on Nigel Farage’s back because, like Kent, it’ll be a shambles, nasty bigots exposed and their councillors will quickly detest each other. Behind the Hard Right’s gains the signs are Farage party’s peaked in the polls, overall support dropping back despite the hundreds of seats accumulated.
Farage personally faces a potential Parliamentary inquiry into his secret £5million personal gift from a Thai-based crypto billionaire and Reform’s funny money campaign will be trickier to fund if the controversial bitcoin tap is turned off. The Conservatives are continuing to do badly, yet to hit rock bottom, although in truth a Tory mini-revival, recovering votes lost to Reform, would assist Labour.
Labour’s beating was bad if not quite as bad as independent pollsters had predicted. And Labour’s been written off in the past and soared again and the next General Election might be as long as three years-plus in the future so huge numbers of Harold Macmillan’s unexpected events could occur in the many of Harold Wilson’s long weeks in politics potentially ahead.
Now for grim home truths confronting a party fighting for it’s very existence less than two years after securing a thumping Parliamentary majority albeit on a measly 34% vote share. The party is deeply unpopular and enjoys little credit for delivered change (better job laws, higher minimum wage, improving NHS, half a million kids lifted from poverty, keeping out of Trump’s Iran war, recognising Palestine, etc) while suffering the mother of all beatings for failures (winter fuel stupidity and boats and migration when most people think numbers are going up when in fact they’re falling).
Insurgent Zack Polanski’s “make hope normal again” Greens are destroying Labour’s Left flank by attracting more voters than are lost to Reform on the Right, emphasising the strategic folly of taking for granted those hitherto camped on the progressive side of Labour’s big tent. Wales is an historic defeat, the wheels came off Labour in Scotland despite the police SNP motor home probe and the Birmingham bin fire was self-ignited.
Yet two words sum up Labour’s biggest problem. The first is “Keir” and you’ve probably guessed the second, “Starmer”. Fairly or unfairly, vast swathes of the country including traditional Labour voters think the Prime Minister is a dud and will not contemplate voting for the party again while he’s in Downing Street.
Starmer declaring he isn’t going anywhere means nor is Labour except oblivion unless the party is led by a fresh face appealing for a second hearing. No Labour MP or Minister I’ve spoken to believes No 10 musical chairs would be easy to play when Starmer will be limpet-like and no heir apparent exists, exiled Andy Burnham unable to even enter the game.
But throwing the dice and gambling on new management is at least a plan. MPs want Cabinet Ministers to lead the revolt whereas Cabinet Ministers want backbenchers to rise up. Labour paralysed in a do-or-die moment would seal the party’s fate.