Weather experts warn temperatures for Three Lions’ opening group game against Croatia in Texas could climb past 100F leaving players struggling and fans risking death
England fans could die watching the World Cup with temperatures set to top 37C, a top NHS consultant has warned.
Weather experts predict players and supporters will face dangerously hot conditions throughout next month’s tournament co-hosted by the US, Mexico and Canada.
Medics fear FIFA has not done enough to protect footballers and spectators at the soccer sizzler. England’s opening group game against Croatia in Arlington, Texas, has been earmarked as a potentially fatal fixture.
Boffins say there is a one-in-three chance the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature – which measures how effectively the body can cool itself – will exceed 28C during the June 17 match.
That is the equivalent of playing in 38C – over 100F – and the point at which the world players’ union FIFPRO says matches should be postponed.
The AT&T Stadium is air-conditioned meaning the Three Lions will be protected. But supporters – particularly at outdoor fan festivals – will face the full force of the scorcher.
Dr Chris Mullington, a consultant anaesthetist at Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, warned the experience could kill.
Fans were ‘more medically diverse’ than elite footballers, likely to be ‘older or very young’ and may have underlying health conditions such as cardiovascular, kidney or heart disease.
“They may be taking medications that affect heat tolerance and they may be unacclimatised visitors,” he said.
“They may also be exposed for much longer than the match itself – walking to the stadium, queuing in direct sun, attending fan zones, sitting in exposed seats and travelling home on crowded transport.
“They’ll probably not hydrate very well the night before.
“They might not sleep very well, and then they might have some beer during the day. And gradually they’ll get hotter and hotter and hotter. They probably won’t wear a hat.
“They may wear their sports shirt, or, as they sometimes do, they might be not wearing a top, and exposing themselves to those risks as well.
“Then what happens is someone who has got that blocked coronary suddenly finds they’re dehydrated and they’re pushing all their blood flow to their skin, and suddenly not enough blood flow is going to their heart, and they suffer a heart attack that they wouldn’t have suffered were they not in that situation.
“You can sort of draw parallels with the excess deaths that you see during heatwaves in the UK.”
Research by academics from World Weather Attribution – which studies the effects of climate change – predicts nine of the 104 World Cup matches will be played in dangerous conditions.
Five – including England’s opener – would be postponed under players’ union rules.
Though footballers were in much better shape than fans and will receive exceptional medical care the conditions will still have an impact on matches – and teams like the Three Lions will struggle.
“You’ll see players self-pacing,” Dr Mullington said.
“It’s really difficult to override that behavioural thermoregulation.
“That might lead to more boring, less risk-taking football. Look at teams playing possession games – passing the ball around at the back.
“It will vary by nation and whilst all teams will have gone through an acclimatisation process beforehand those that come from hotter parts of the world and are used to playing routinely in these kind of conditions will probably have a performance advantage. “Northern European teams, for example. may struggle more than South American teams.
“I think what it will mostly look like is that the players will find that they just won’t be able to play at the intensity that they’re used to playing at.
“Therefore they’ll probably resort to more conservative strategies within games. I think you’ll look forward to a lot of possession games.
“It’s unlikely that you’ll see a case of exertional heat illness in players – although it is possible. If that did occur that would be a major wake-up call.”
Dr Mullington said measures FIFA had introduced to protect players – with three-minute mid-half hydration breaks – did not go far enough to mitigate the heat impact.
Fans should get free bottles of drinking water and cooling misting sprays.
Dr Friederike Otto, professor of climate science at Imperial College London, said as temperatures rise in future FIFA should move World Cups from summer to winter as they did in Qatar in 2022.
“It would definitely be advisable to have these either earlier in the year or later in the year to have the ability to have a football party and not something that is a massive health risk,” Dr Otto said.
A FIFA spokesman said a tiered heat mitigation strategy would be in place at the tournament finals.
When temperatures exceed defined thresholds ‘spectators will be permitted to bring one factory-sealed water bottle and venues will activate additional cooling capacity including shaded areas, misting systems, cooling buses and expanded water distribution’, they said.
FIFA said it had also developed a medical protocol for exertional heat illness for players that includes the use of bespoke cooling bags by trained match doctors that will allow immediate treatment at any location.