Millions of Brits up and down the country are struggling with their energy bills as Reform UK vows to bring down costs by scrapping clean energy in favour of fracking and extracting oil
Reform UK’s flagship energy policy of tapping into North Sea oil reserves will not lead to noticeably cheaper prices, experts have claimed.
Nigel Farage’s Reform party won in totemic Labour strongholds like Sunderland and Hartlepool, as well as Tameside, in Greater Manchester, in Angela Rayner’s back yard in last week’s local elections after vowing to cut immigration into the country and transforming Britain’s energy policy by reversing its clean power pledges.
But as Reform has gained seats, criticism of its flagship policies has also built – including the promise to “drill, baby, drill” and get more oil out of the North Sea. Farage’s policy has taken Donald Trump’s energy slogan and deployed it in its bid to attract more supporters.
Millions of Brits have struggled to to cover energy bills, which have soared to averages of between £1,641 to £1,758 for duel gas and electricity costs.
While Reform have claimed extracting more oil will drive down energy prices, experts are not as convinced by the pledge. Chris Aylett, a research fellow at the Environment and Society Centre at Chatham House noted that big promises might not lead to big savings for Brits.
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“With an estimated 90 per cent of the oil and gas on the UK Continental Shelf having already been extracted and burned, and with new licences unlikely to yield anything for decades, focusing on North Sea drilling misses the point,” he told The Mirror. “The UK needs to use less oil and gas, by rolling out electric vehicles and heat pumps, and it needs to deploy more wind, solar and batteries.”
When asked bluntly if drilling in the North Sea would lead to cheaper prices, Aylett’s response was simple: “No, and not in the long-term either. Oil and gas are internationally traded commodities and their prices are decided by global markets.
“Private companies operating in the North Sea aren’t likely to invest in new drilling if they are required to sell their product for less than they could get elsewhere. In principle, the sector could be partly or fully nationalized, although this isn’t something that Reform or the Conservatives advocate.
“This would give the government the option of selling to British consumers at prices beneath international benchmarks. But even in this unlikely scenario, it would make more economic sense to export at the higher prices and use the revenues back home.”
Mr Aylett admitted while the North Sea oil and gas sector had generated substantial revenue for the exchequer, it had fluctuated dramatically in line with international prices and changes to the tax regime. He added it had actually been a net negative for a couple of years in the 2010s, when the state “paid out” more in tax relief than it received in revenues and that the revenue is small in terms of the size of the UK economy at well under 1 per cent of GDP.
The war in Iran has gone on to spark one of the biggest oil price shocks in recent decades, leading to growing speculation that more countries will pursue clean energy in a bid to avoid major supply disruptions. Investors are now pouring money into global ETFs that are linked to clean energy last month amid a focus on alternatives to oil.
Donald Trump’s war in Iran has sent the price of oil surging 55 per cent since the start of the war with the global benchmark of the liquid gold hitting $120 (£89). But a study from Oxford University’s Smith School of Enterprise and Environment, which was carried out before the war began, optimistically claimed between £16 and £82 per year could be saved by British families – “and only if the tax revenues collected were distributed to households to offset their energy bills.”
“The idea that draining the North Sea would make the UK more energy secure or significantly save on household bills is sheer fantasy,” says Dr Anupama Sen, co-author and Head of Policy Engagement at the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment. “We show that regardless of the remaining lifetime of North Sea oil and gas, a ‘drill baby drill’ approach to extraction would actually cost households more money versus continuing on our path to clean energy.”
The same analysis from the school found a UK fully powered by renewable energy could save households upward of £441. Authors stress savings gained from clean energy could also continue indefinitely, while North Sea oil and gas is a finite resource due to run out by 2040.