The World Meteorolgical Organisation has said El Nino is returning, and we need to be aware and worried about what it could mean for us this summer
The world is going to get hotter than ever as the planet struggles under the strain of climate change, weather boffs have warned. The World Meteorolgical Organisation has said El Nino is returning, and we need to be aware and worried about what it could mean.
El Niño, a powerful natural weather pattern which raises global temperatures and reduces rainfall, has an 80% chance of happening before September and a 90% chance of persisting until November, The World Meteorological Organization has revealed in a worrying update.
They said they have observed evidence which suggests that El Nino is likely to strengthen as 2026 rumbles on, which will drive much more extreme weather around the whole world. Several forecasts from national weather agencies suggest it could end up as one of the strongest ever recorded – a possible so-called “super” El Niño.
This means the world will get hotter than ever with floods also worse than we have ever seen, they have warned.
Experts say that in Britain it will mean hotter summers, with the current heatwave seen last week proving the tip of the iceberg, with us soon seeing temperatures exceeding 40C.
“Summer temperatures could certainly be impacted, possibly this year, but more likely next, as the planet heats up,” says Professor Bill McGuire, emeritus professor of geophysical and climate hazards at University College London and author of the new book The Fate of the World: A History and Future of the Climate Crisis. “I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see 40C-plus heat.”
UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres says the world must treat the threat of El Nino “as the urgent climate warning it is.
“El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world,” he said. “Impacts will hit even harder, travel even farther, and cross borders with devastating speed.”
The last El Nino took place in 2023-24, and was one of the five strongest summers ever recorded, breaking global records. But this summer could even break those.
“We’re very confident that there’s a big event coming,” Prof Adam Scaife, from the Met Office, told the BBC. “It may even be a record event.”
If the climate phenomenon occurs this year, it will increase the chances of 2027 becoming the next record-breaking year, UN scientists have warned.
El Nino forms when a switch in wind patterns causes warmer waters to spread across the Pacific Ocean, fuelling hurricanes and torrential rains in the global south while preventing cool air and rainwaters from reaching the Atlantic Ocean, resulting in heatwaves and droughts.
The scientists say these increasing surface anomalies are being fed by unusually warm subsurface conditions across the tropical Pacific, with temperatures exceeding 6C above average and providing a substantial reservoir of heat.
Another climate model that focuses on atmospheric conditions is also consistent with developing El Nino conditions.