Andy Burnham has clearly made a good first impression on Donald Trump.
Both leaders gave their first phone call a cautiously glowing review. But Trump seemed particularly pleased that Burnham had apparently told him he would do something he’d been badgering Keir Starmer to do for months.
“He did say one good thing, he said he’s going to open up the North Sea,” he told reporters in the Oval Office. “If he does that, you’re going to be a wealthy country, if he does that reasonably.”
I say he told reporters – he said that to Bev Turner, a presenter for GB News to whom Trump has taken a shine in the months since the right-wing entertainment channel launched its Washington wing. Remember this, it will be important later.
The problem with this is that it’s not actually what Burnham said. At least, it’s not quite what Burnham says he said.
Today, the PM said he had “indicated” to Trump that he would be “pragmatic” about North Sea drilling. But the Government’s position remains that there will be no new drilling licences – with any expansion likely to come from “tie-backs”, limited expansions of already approved sites.
Still, so long as Trump never works that out, Burnham can bask in the warm glow of Trump thinking he’s useful to him.
See, Trump is not, despite what pundits will have you believe, a ‘transactional’ President. That implies there being some kind of understanding of mutual benefit to dealing with him, and Trump manifestly has no interest in what other people get out of dealing with him.
Trump’s sole interest in anyone is based on whether they can benefit him on a given day. And so long as he believes Burnham could grant American companies licences to drill in the North Sea, he won’t publicly dismiss him as a disgrace to the nation of Churchill.
The problem with trying to get into, and remain in Trump’s good graces is that like a finicky houseplant, or a toddler, it requires constant attention.
Trump famously doesn’t read the news, not directly anyway. Much of the information that reaches him each day is filtered either through the Fox News channel, or through close aides printing it off and hand to him.
He’s almost certainly not seen or heard Burnham’s less committal comments about drilling this afternoon. And while our diplomats will be doing their best to ensure things are interpreted to our mutual benefit, he’ll probably hear it first from another source – the White House press corps. And most specifically, the British arm of the White House Press Corps, which currently has a distinctly right-wing bent.
Of course, Burnham and his team will be aware of this. But what he does next will depend on how much energy he wants to devote to tending this particular houseplant.
He has three options. He could immediately pick a fight with Trump, which would be very popular with voters at home but be of little benefit to him in the long run.
He could spend a lot of time, energy and political capital nurturing a relationship with Trump, trying to coax him towards the shared objectives of the UK and Europe. That’s more or less what Starmer did, with some success, but ultimately, again, to limited benefit.
The other option, which seems closer to his style, is to portray himself as an honest, down to earth, plainspoken bloke – which might in itself be endearing to Trump – and let the chips fall as they may. It’s low impact, both politically and on his time, and isn’t any less likely to insulate Britain from the fickle wrath of Trump.