Reform party faithful will flock to Birmingham for the party’s annual conference this week.
Last year the mood was buoyant, with Reform ahead in the polls as it sought to capitalise on the turmoil of Keir Starmer‘s government. Nigel Farage used his party conference speech to channel the showboating of his idol Donald Trump as he entered the stage with thumping music and a pyrotechnic catwalk.
But this year, the mood in and around Reform is more subdued. The annual conference comes off the back of Mr Farage’s disastrous by-election stunt, questions over his £5million gift, civil war in Reform’s top ranks and dwindling poll ratings.
The Mirror looks at all the challenges facing Reform ahead of its party conference.
Public turning on Nigel Farage and Reform
This time last year, Reform was riding high in the polls on around 31%, with a 10% lead over Labour and the Tories. That lead has now collapsed, with the parties either neck and neck, or Labour leading.
Andy Burnham replacing Keir Starmer has caused problems for Reform, as the new PM enjoys a “Burnham bounce”. More in Common polling on Tuesday put Labour on 26%, with Reform on 22%, while the Tories were also ahead of Mr Farage’s party on 23%.
As the shine comes off Reform, voters appear to be looking again at the two main parties, with Reform going from hoping for a majority, to being forecast to win a minority, to not being the largest party at all.
One of the biggest issues facing Reform is the public turning on Mr Farage. YouGov data published this week showed the Reform leader’s approval rating had collapsed, with his latest net favourability rating of -44 – a massive slump from its peak of -27 last summer.
Just 19% of Brits now see him as a PM-in-waiting, with 66% of the public – including 27% of Reform voters – believing he does not have the top job in him.
Asked people to describe the Reform leader in three of their own words, and 71% of Britons use at least one negative term, with the most frequent being accusations that Farage is a racist (used by 15%) and a liar (12%).
One in ten Brits (10%) include at least one swearword or insult in their three-word description of Farage. Things were just as bad for the party, with 56% seeing Reform as incompetent and caring only about a select few rather than caring about ordinary people.
Five million questions remain…
Reform UK’s big moment comes after Nigel Farage spent most of the summer dodging scrutiny. After winning the Clacton by-election in August – and not bothering to turn up to the count – the Reform UK leader largely went to ground.
Critics questioned whether he was trying to dodge questions about a £5million gift he received from Thai-based crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne shortly before the 2024 general election. The Standards Commissioner opened an investigation over his failure to declare the sum, with rules stating MPs must declare gifts or donations they receive in the year before they are elected.
In July, Mr Farage resigned as an MP to let the people of Clacton “judge” him instead of the so-called “establishment”. His resignation triggered the by-election, which cost taxpayers an estimated £250,000. But the stunt backfired after all the major parties boycotted the race, leaving comedy candidate Count Binface as Mr Farage’s main rival.
The standards probe was suspended after Mr Farage resigned as an MP, but was reopened when he was re-elected. It means questions about his £5m gift continue to loom over him. The Reform leader has become increasingly rattled when asked about the sum, including a series of tetchy interviews in June where he said it’s not the public’s business how he spends the cash and he can spend it on Ferraris or betting on horseracing if he wants.
More money claims
It’s not just the £5million gift that risks overshadowing Reform conference. There are several other allegations about Reform’s finances that also threaten to rear their head during the gathering.
In July, Mr Farage faced pressure after claims emerged accusing him of failing to declare financial benefits he received from a convicted criminal. The Reform UK leader allegedly accepted staffing, security and housing from George Cottrell – a rich aristocrat known as “Posh George” – in the year before he became an MP.
In July, it was reported that police were investigating donations totalling £500,000 made to Reform UK by Fiona Cottrell, Mr Cottrell’s mum. Investigators are reportedly looking at whether the true source of the money was concealed and if the sum came from an impermissible donor.
Reform’s deputy leader Richard Tice has also faced pressure, with allegations surfacing in April that his company broke the law by failing to pay more than £90,000 in tax. He reportedly failed to pay a required levy on dividends before they were channelled to him and his offshore trust. Mr Tice – who is Reform’s Business, Trade and Energy spokesman – insists he has complied with the rules.
Zia Yusuf tensions
Zia Yusuf is another problem for the party with outbursts that enrage people both in and out of Reform.
Mr Yusuf, who has not been selected for a seat, recently sparked a Reform civil war after branding former Defence Secretary and ex-soldier Sir Ben Wallace a “traitor” and calling for him to be prosecuted over his role in Afghans coming to Britain. Mr Farage said he would speak to his colleague about the language, but the damage was already done.
A former close ally of Mr Farage, Tim Montgomerie, was suspended from the party after hitting out at Mr Yusuf, saying people “cannot behave like a child” in politics. His comments, along with saying Mr Farage was wrong to skip the Clacton by-election count, led to a suspension.
In a sign of how rattled Mr Yusuf was as backlash grew against him, he took to Twitter to attack multiple journalists, and claim he had the “3rd highest Favourables of any right wing politician” prompted in a poll: However, he failed to mention only five people were mentioned, and he still had a negative approval rating.
Reform losing councillors
Nigel Farage has long promised to professionalise his party amid concerns over the vetting of Reform candidates. But recent research shared with the Mirror shows Reform UK is losing a councillor every three days on average.
A new resignation and defection tracker reveals 35 newly-elected representatives have resigned or been suspended since local elections in May. The online tool was released days after a leaked training video said the biggest threat the party faces is “people in it and itself”.
Launching the tracker, which will be updated with each new resignation or suspension, Best For Britain’s chief executive Naomi Smith told The Mirror: “Whether they’ve resigned, been suspended, or were simply never up to the job, Reform UK have been shedding councillors ever since May. “So much for the tidal wave about to break over British politics, this is a party that would struggle to run a bath. They’re now losing a councillor every three days.”
Summer distraction policies backfire
Over the summer, Reform tried to distract from questions about the party’s finances with a number of headline-grabbing announcements.
But the plans unravelled one by one as soon as they came under scrutiny. Among them, Reform announced proposals to send the Navy into the Channel to stop small boats and imprison bosses over illegal employment. The first plan was torn apart by the French government who said deploying the Royal Navy in the Channel would be a “violation of French sovereignty” and would break maritime law.
The second plan saw Zia Yusuf, Reform’s home affairs spokesman, was branded a “pillock” after he said he’ll send CEOs to prison if they hire illegal workers – despite bosses already facing jail terms.
Elsewhere, Robert Jenrick’s plans to ban overseas nationals from claiming almost all benefits in the UK started unravelling before his press conference announcing them even started. Critics pointed out that the plan would risk reopening old Brexit debates as it would mean the EU withdrawal agreement would have to be renegotiated.
And Reform’s plans to make it more difficult for single parents, unemployed people or those born outside Britain to access social housing also backfired after experts warned they would make more families at risk of homelessness.