The current El Nino has reached record-breaking levels weeks before it is to peak, according to Met Office boffins, with the supersized weather phenomenon predicted to bring chaos
El Nino has gone “Godzilla” as the weather pattern supercharges and is expected to send Britain into a deep freeze this winter.
The current El Nino has reached record-breaking levels weeks before it is to peak, according to Met Office boffins. They fear it has “far-reaching” impacts on weather patterns around the world and will spark a rollercoaster ride of a winter for the UK.
The El Nino is a naturally-occurring climate phenomenon that develops in the Pacific Ocean when sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific become significantly warmer than average, changing atmospheric circulation patterns and affecting weather worldwide.
Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at the Met Office, said: “We have been signalling for months that the developing El Nino will be an unprecedented event.
“The fact that it has already exceeded previous records, with several weeks to go before it peaks later this year, shows the enormity of this El Nino.
“Scientists are still assessing whether the impacts will be in proportion to its magnitude, but we are already seeing expected effects worldwide.”
For the UK that means an increased likelihood of wetter and stormier conditions during autumn and early winter, while later in the season El Nino is associated with an increased risk of cold snaps.
Elsewhere, the Indian monsoon is running below normal, which is consistent with the developing El Nino, the Met Office said, while other areas such as southern Africa may be at increased risk of drought.
The event will have impacts worldwide, affecting everything from agriculture to water, energy demand, wildfire risk and nature.
The current El Nino is developing on top of human-caused climate change, which is mostly as a result of burning fossil fuels for power, heating, transport and industry and is causing temperature rises and more extreme weather, and is likely to push up global temperatures in 2027 to new record levels.
Met Office science fellow Dr Nick Dunstone said: “During large El Nino events significantly more heat is released from the ocean to the atmosphere, leading to an increase in global average temperature, particularly in the calendar year following the winter peak of the El Nino.
“Hence, 2027 is very likely to replace 2024 as the warmest year on record and be yet another year to temporarily exceed 1.5C above the pre-industrial period.”
Global warming of 1.5C, even temporarily, is seen as a significant threshold, as countries have committed to try to curb climate change to that level over the long term, to prevent the worst impacts of climate-driven floods, droughts, melting ice and extreme heat and collapse of natural systems.