A YouGov study found that Nigel Farage’s party would end up with 123 MPs if an election were held now, which is well down on the 311 forecast from a similar poll just one year ago
Reform UK are on course to win fewer seats than both Labour and the Tories at the next general election, a new poll suggests.
A YouGov study found that Nigel Farage ’s party would end up with 123 MPs if an election were held now, which is well down on the 311 forecast from a similar poll just one year ago.
In a further blow to Reform, the mega poll also shows Reform MPs Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman would both be booted out the Commons – losing their seats to their former party.
The poll shows Labour would be the largest party on 241 seats, with the Tories second on 130. It represents a major turnaround for the Labour party, with YouGov predicting under Keir Starmer ’s they’d win just 144 seats.
The MRP poll surveyed 17,000 people to produce a seat-by-seat breakdown, and suggests the UK is heading for its first hung parliament since the Tory Lib Dem coalition of 2010.
The Lib Dems are forecast to stay on 71 MPs, meaning Sir Ed Davey could be key to any future government.
After losing support in recent months, the Greens are only forecast to win eight seats, while the SNP are expected to jump from eight to 40 MPs.
The Reform collapse comes after a series of scandals, with its annual conference in Birmingham overshadowed by allegations about off-the-books polling after undercover footage of Mr Farage and colleagues was broadcast by Channel 4.
Two of Mr Farage’s key aides – Dan Jukes and James Orr – were suspended after the allegations came to light, and the Met Police has since announced it has launched a criminal investigation. I
Polling earlier this month shows Mr Farage’s latest unpopularity level is the highest recorded for him in 10 years.
It shows 69% of voters have an unfavourable opinion of him – including 57% who say they see him in a very unfavourable way. Just 24% hold a positive opinion of him, the polling shows.
This comes hot on the heels of another YouGov poll which found 73% of voters believe Mr Farage is sleazy. The latest figures show Mr Farage’s net favourability rating of -45 is the same as Mr Starmer’s just before he stepped down.