Kemi Badenoch‘s Tory renaissance has seen the party become the main opposition in British politics again.
Polling shows the public see the Conservatives as the main challengers to Andy Burnham and Labour, after reeling in a healthy Reform lead in the past five months.
A pollster said on Friday night that the ‘tectonic plates are shifting on the Right of British politics’.
The Ipsos poll found that following Mrs Badenoch’s barnstorming party conference, she has toppled the 28-point lead held by Reform UK in May, moving ahead of Mr Farage’s party for the first time in this Parliament by three points (35 to 32 per cent).
Policy announcements such as the scrapping of inheritance tax on the family home, building 50,000 new prison places, and a drive to get more youngsters into work while cutting the benefits bill have energised the Tory faithful.
But the polling suggests they are also cutting through with other voters. In May, those who backed Labour at the 2024 general election put Reform 24 points ahead as the official opposition; now they give the Tories a 13-point lead.
The uptick for the Conservatives comes at a time of Reform woe, as it faces police probes over donations and a new racism and sexism scandal.
Ipsos director of politics Keiran Pedley told the Daily Mail: ‘We’re seeing consistently over time people increasingly saying it is clear what Kemi stands for, with her ratings improving over time. At the same time, Reform are obviously struggling.
Kemi Badenoch’s Tory renaissance has seen the party become the main opposition in British politics again. Pictured: Mrs Badenoch at a visit to The Malcolm Group in Paisley on Friday
‘There’s a sense of a battle for hearts and minds on the Right of British politics, which it very much looked like Reform had won [by May].
‘What’s changed since the local elections? Reform has had scandal after scandal whereas Kemi has looked like a steady pair of hands, and people know what she stands for.
‘It’s sensible to be cautious – where will we be in November/December? But it’s clear the tectonic plates are shifting on the Right of British politics.’
Lord Hayward, a Conservative peer and polling expert, said the poll’s finding could prove seismic for the party’s fortunes. He added: ‘If, particularly in what we have as a multi-party nation where parties are jockeying to be first or second, it’s quite important that in people’s minds you are the prime opposition to the Government.
‘The Tories have got to wait another four to six weeks to be certain that their post-conference poll bounce remains as more than just a bounce.’
He argued that while Reform had suffered from the decline in immigration as the most salient issue, and a fall in Mr Farage’s popularity, particularly among the middle classes, ‘at the same time you’ve had the rise of Kemi, both as herself but also being able to put a bit of distance between the current Conservative Party and the previous government’.
In May, those who backed Labour at the 2024 general election put Reform 24 points ahead as the official opposition; now they give the Tories a 13-point lead. Pictured: Labour PM Andy Burnham delivering a speech in Motherwell on Friday
The Ipsos poll also reveals that voters increasingly believe Mrs Badenoch could become prime minister, rising from 24 per cent this time last year to 32 per cent.
Those saying that Mr Farage is likely to enter No 10, meanwhile, have fallen from 50 per cent in May to just 33 per cent.
The poll is yet another boost for the Conservatives, after three separate ballots this week put them in second place ahead of Mr Farage’s outfit. And Reform voters said they liked the way Mrs Badenoch has dealt with a row, sparked by Suella Braverman, about whether only white people can be truly English.
Mrs Badenoch’s keynote conference speech in Birmingham saw her memorably compare the party to Marks & Spencer.
She quipped: ‘M&S is a brand that has been around for 100 years. Not so long ago, critics said they were a bit stuffy and stuck in the past. Some were even questioning whether the brand would survive. Do you see where I’m going with this, conference? Now, M&S is back in fashion. Great looks at affordable prices.
‘They have adapted their style for today’s market, and people are flooding back, including me.
‘Just like M&S, we must learn from our mistakes, win back trust, and make people feel good about our party again.’
Meanwhile, Reform has had another tough week dogged with questions about their candidate vetting, after an undercover sting found multiple councillors and candidates expressing racist views and using offensive language.
Mr Farage also remains under investigation by Parliament’s sleaze busters over an undeclared £5million ‘gift’ from crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne. A decision is expected imminently.
On Friday night one Reform insider said senior party figures now believe they could be heading to just 15 per cent in the polls as soon as next month based on their current trajectory.
Looking ahead to the next general election scheduled for 2029, they added: ‘It’s like being on a coach trip to Portugal, but we’ve run out of petrol in Dover.’
Speaking in Scotland on Friday, Mrs Badenoch said the latest Reform revelations were ‘yet another example of how Reform has a behavioural problem across the entire organisation’.
‘I always say that fish rots from the head, and Nigel Farage, Robert Jenrick and Richard Tice are all under investigation, so it’s no surprise the rest of the party is behaving badly,’ she added.
‘Reform voters are being let down by Reform politicians.’