EXCLUSIVE: As the entire Middle East prepares for another outbreak of war between the US and Iran, latest assessments suggest the UK will be put further at risk by another explosion of violence
Britain will be put further in peril if the US – Iran war explodes again in the coming weeks, as the Middle East braces for a return to conflict, latest analysis suggests.
Added pressure from Russia, over the UK’s support for Ukraine, the risk of Islamist terrorism and surging far-right aggression are creating a perfect storm of rising threats towards the UK. Assessments seen by the Daily Mirror point towards another round of US-Iran fighting, with Russia and China helping Tehran, despite Donald Trump’s warmth towards their leaders.
Amid the chaos, this could mean Trump is supporting the views of Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, whilst they back plots which cause the deaths of US troops in the Middle East. And the UK’s limiting support for the US will not stop it from facing a new threat of Iranian sabotage, espionage and arm’s length terror attacks launched by its proxies.
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On Tuesday it emerged the UK will deploy RAF Typhoon jets to defend Saudi Arabia in response to escalating Houthi missile and drone attacks. The defensive mission will help defend Saudi cities and infrastructure – a move authorised by Prime Minister Andy Burnham – against aerial attacks by the Iran-backed group.
It follows Houthi attacks on the Saudi capital Riyadh, as well as on energy sites on the country’s coast. Iran is preparing for major US strikes and for war to resume as it moves air-defence guns around the country and putting its military on high-alert for a fresh conflict.
US President Trump has vowed nothing will happen with the Iran crisis until after the mid-term elections, which will weaken his position if republicans do as badly as expected. But he also warned last week that he is considering launching America’s biggest bomb – the Massive Ordnance Air Burst or Mother of all bombs at Iranian targets.
One intelligence assessment warns: “A restrictive approach to offensive military participation does not automatically remove the possibility of hostile activity directed at British interests, particularly where the United Kingdom continues to cooperate with American forces and regional partners.”
Separately seven suspects are out on police bail after being seized on suspicion of preparing terrorist acts in relation to an incident at RAF Fairford last month. And British intelligence has warned repeatedly that Iran represents a major threat to UK as its intelligence operatives are suspected of many plots against the UK.
Ken McCallum, head of MI5 warned recently that Iran represented a major threat to the UK, whilst Russian remained the biggest. The intelligence chief said there had been 50 arrests in the last year over Iran-linked activities.
Much of this Iranian aggression has been aimed at Jewish communities, Sir Ken added, and also at “harder targets, like military sites”. He did not mention arrests at RAF Fairford directly during his speech, but told reporters afterwards the incident was “not unique”.
He added: “We have seen Iranian interest beyond RAF Fairford in the UK.”
After the initial five men were seized by police at RAF Fairford, which house US bombers, the US removed its B1 warplanes back to the States
But a resumption of the US-Iran war will put the UK under extra pressure, even though it is already exposed to the threat of aggression from Islamist terror and Russian spies.
The report added: “Effective readiness requires adequate personnel, equipment availability, maintenance, logistics, training and sustainable industrial replenishment.Simultaneous commitments to NATO, European security and Middle Eastern force protection may create competing demands.
“The resulting strategic risk is not necessarily overextension at any given moment, but insufficient resilience if several demands intensify together.”
Neighbouring states in the firing line have issued major alerts in Jordan, Lebanon. Qatar, Saudi, Israel etc in preparation for a US escalation. One report seen by the Mirror says Iran is moving its Khordad air defence systems around Tehran in preparation.
A British source told the Mirror: “The analysis from the States is pessimistic. The US has no meaningful plan or coherent strategy. Military and intelligence people are frustrated, bewildered and embarrassed.”
Former FBI Middle East expert Ali Soufan says in his latest assessment: “Prospects for a diplomatic solution fade, regional leaders are bracing for the US-Iran war to resume..”
He underlined the news that Iran is intensifying attacks on Strait of Hormuz shipping. And he added that Iran is prepared to escalate with its regional proxies, saying: “Iran is sure to tap its regional allies, including the Houthis and Iran -aligned Shia militia in Iraq.”