Russia still occupies roughly 19.5%–20% of Ukraine as the war enters its fourth year, with ceasefire talks continuing while both sides trade drone and missile strikes, Ukraine seeks security guarantees
Russia still occupies roughly a fifth of Ukraine as the invasion grinds into its fourth year. And, today, we’re breaking down what that actually means on the ground, why the fighting hasn’t stopped, and what Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy are each waiting for.
As US-backed and European-mediated ceasefire talks rumble on, we’ll look at how much land Russia has taken (and the brutal human cost), what Ukraine has clawed back through counter-attacks and drone strikes, and why experts think this could drag on or end in an uneasy armistice.
We’ll also explain what the UK has spent helping Ukraine, what that money buys, how much more aid Kyiv says it needs, and what could happen if Western support slows – including what “victory” would look like for either side.
Why is there still a war?
Russian President Vladimir Putin is still demanding Ukraine gives up its sovereign territory. But the country is refusing to give up its sovereignty and insists on credible security guarantees. Both sides have been using long-term drone and missile strikes to improve their leverage for an eventual armistice rather than seeking a quick total military collapse.
Ultimately, the war continues because Russia refuses to give up its attempt to control Ukraine, while Ukraine refuses to surrender its sovereignty and independence.
How much of Ukraine has Russia successfully acquired?
Russia occupies under 19.5% to 20% of internationally recognised Ukrainian territory, including Crimea and parts of the Donbas region. Moreover, Russia has sustained more 1.2 to 1.3 million total military casualties to capture and hold these areas, with recent yearly gains amounting to less than 1% of the country, France 24 reported.
How much land has Ukraine successfully managed to get back?
Ukraine has reclaimed minor pockets of territory through localised counter-offensives and mid-range drone strikes (e.g., reclaiming hundreds of square kilometres across recent months like April and May), though these recaptured areas represent a fraction of total Russian-held ground. Nevertheless, Ukraine has pushed the Russian Black Sea Fleet back and destroyed roughly 30% of its vessels using sea drones.
Meanwhile, it has heavily degraded Russian energy infrastructure and oil refineries via long-range drone campaign, Bloomberg reported.
How long will the war last?
Analysts project a protracted conflict or an armistice model similar to historical precedents (such as Finland’s arrangement with the Soviet Union) rather than a clean, total military victory. Putin is banking on Western political fatigue, declining financial support for Kyiv, and internal economic and military pressure to force a favourable collapse of Ukraine’s defensive lines.
Meanwhile, Zelenskyy is waiting for solidified Western security guarantees, accelerated EU integration, long-term air defense supplies (like Patriot systems), and enforceable ceasefire terms that do not reward Russian aggression.
UK spending
The UK has committed billions of pounds in military, humanitarian, and economic support since 2022. The money is spent on precision missiles, tanks, artillery ammunition, air defence equipment, winter gear, and direct financial backing to keep the Ukrainian government operational.
The UK government continues to financially help Ukraine because it views backing Ukraine as vital to European security, international law, and deterring further Russian expansionism across the continent.
How much more aid does Ukraine need?
Ukraine urgently requires a steady supply of high-end air defence interceptor missiles (such as Patriot munitions) to counter daily Russian ballistic and drone barrages on cities and energy grids, alongside multi-billion-euro/dollar defence procurement packages from European and US partners, according to Anadolu Ajansı.
What happens if aid to Ukraine ceases ?
Ukraine’s air defence network would quickly deplete against continuous Russian bombardments while frontline logistics would fracture due to a lack of ammunition, experts say. There are claims that Kyiv would be forced into a catastrophic capitulation or guerrilla war on unfavourable Russian terms.
The end goal
Ukraine wants restoration of international borders or a secure, heavily armed, independent state integrated into European and Western economic and security structures without legally surrendering sovereign land.
On the other hand, Russia wants the neutering of Ukrainian military capability, permanent control over annexed regions, and the prevention of NATO/Western infrastructure on its borders, the Atlantic Council explains.
What happens if Ukraine wins or Russia wins?
If Ukraine wins, international law and state sovereignty will be reinforced, Russian imperial expansion will be checked, and Ukraine will pivot firmly toward European reconstruction and integration, analysts believe.
But if Russia wins, the Ukrainian statehood will effectively be extinguished or reduced to a puppet or vassal status, millions more will be displaced, and regional security across Eastern Europe and NATO’s eastern flank will face a severe, immediate threat, according to the Caspian report.
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