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Nigel Farage WON’T stand at election in big increase for Tories

Rishi Sunak received a huge boost on the first day of election campaigning today as Nigel Farage dramatically killed off hopes of a comeback.

The Brexit champion insisted he wants to focus on backing Donald Trump‘s campaign in the US, as he announced he will not be a candidate for the Commons.   

The bombshell will be a massive relief for Mr Sunak, after months of uncertainty about Mr Farage’s intentions.  

Meanwhile, there was some other positive news for the premier with signs immigration is finally dipping. Official figures showed a 10 per cent drop in net long-term inflows last year – although the level was still an eye-watering 685,000, bigger than the population of Sheffield. The previous record for 2022 was also revised upwards to 764,000.

Ministers argue that reforms tightening rules on dependents and students have only just taken effect. 

The PM joked he is ‘drier’ than yesterday and had ‘brought an umbrella’ as he gave interviews from Derbyshire this morning after shocking the country – and his own MPs – by pulling the trigger on a July 4 contest.

He launched a highly personal attack on Keir Starmer, swiping that he had ‘no convictions’ and voters cannot trust him. 

However, he conceded that Rwanda flights will not now take off until after the election.

And the scale of the task facing the premier was underlined this morning with YouGov research showing Labour 25 points ahead – enough for a landslide bigger than that secured by Tony Blair in 1997. Polling guru Sir John Curtice said Mr Sunak’s decision to call a ballot meant he is ‘either very brave or extremely foolhardy’.

The PM was in Derbyshire this morning after shocking the country – and his own MPs – by pulling the trigger on a July 4 contest

Rumours are swirling about a Nigel Farage comeback today as Reform prepares to launch its election push

Rumours are swirling about a Nigel Farage comeback today as Reform prepares to launch its election push

The Brexit champion insisted he wants to focus on backing Donald Trump 's campaign in the US, as he announced he will not be a candidate for the Commons

The Brexit champion insisted he wants to focus on backing Donald Trump ‘s campaign in the US, as he announced he will not be a candidate for the Commons

Keir Starmer was on the campaign trail in Gillingham with Angela Rayner this morning

Keir Starmer was on the campaign trail in Gillingham with Angela Rayner this morning

Official figures today showed immigration easing slightly after reaching a record high

Official figures today showed immigration easing slightly after reaching a record high

Even senior Reform insiders had admitted they had no idea whether he would turn up to a press conference scheduled this morning. 

In interviews last night, the Brexit champion said the PM had chosen to go for political ‘suicide’ branding the Tories ‘Big State liberals’.

But he only said he would ‘think about’ his own plans overnight, suggesting Mr Sunak’s decision to go early had ‘quite a lot to do with me’ – so he did not have time to gain momentum in a campaign.

Ministers claim progress as figures show immigration finally easing to 685,000 – but record high from 2022 is revised UP 

Ministers claimed progress today after net immigration dropped by 10 per cent last year – although it was still 685,000.

The latest figures on the key election battleground suggested that net long-term inflows were slightly more than the population of Sheffield in 2023.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) also revised up the previous year to 764,000 – increasing the already eye-watering record high.

The ONS said it was too early to tell if a downward trend had begun, but the number of people coming to the UK is slowing while emigration is rising.

Work was the biggest driver of migration in 2023, overtaking study, and there was a substantial increase in the number of people arriving from outside the EU on work-related visas, the figures suggest.

The measure – which is the difference between the number of people arriving and leaving the country – has been revised upwards by 19,000 for 2022 from an earlier estimate of 745,000 now that more complete data for the year is available.

Some 1.22million people are estimated to have arrived in the UK in 2023 (immigration), while 532,000 are likely to have left (emigration). This is compared with 1.26 million and 493,000 respectively in 2022.

The rise in the number of people emigrating from the UK long-term has been driven largely by increased emigration from non-EU nationals, particularly among those who initially arrived on a study visa, the ONS said.

The figures precede a raft of restrictions brought in by the Government since the start of 2024 amid pressure to cut the record number of people legally arriving in Britain.

The Home Office stressed the estimates ‘do not take into account the major package measures announced in December which have already started to have an effect’.

Home Secretary James Cleverly said: ‘The latest migration statistics show a 10 per cent fall in net migration last year, with visa applications down 25 per cent so far in 2024.

‘This shows the plan under Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives is working but there is more to do. That is why we must stick to the plan, not go back to square one.’

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In a statement posted on X, Mr Farage said: ‘I have thought long and hard as to whether I should stand in the upcoming general election.

‘As honorary president of Reform UK, I am fully supportive of Richard Tice’s leadership and urge voters to put their trust in him and Lee Anderson.

‘I will do my bit to help in the campaign, but it is not the right time for me to go any further than that.

‘Important though the general election is, the contest in the United States of America on November 5 has huge global significance. A strong America as a close ally is vital for our peace and security. I intend to help with the grassroots campaign in the USA in any way that I can.

‘The choice between Labour and the Conservatives is uninspiring, and only Reform have the radical agenda that is needed to end decline in this country.’

Anxiety has been growing in Tory ranks about the prospect of Reform gifting Keir Starmer victory by tempting natural supporters away.

The party has been registering above 10 per cent in polls, potentially enough to doom significant number of Conservative MPs – although experts believe they will not be able to win any seats. 

Richard Tice is currently leader of Reform, but Mr Farage founded the party and has been mulling a comeback for months. 

The timing of the poll in the summer means he might find it easier to campaign, as it is before the US election where he will be stumping for Donald Trump.

But Mr Farage has also pointed out that it is incredibly difficult to get MPs elected under first past the post – having failed himself to win a seat many times. 

Speaking to GB News, where is a presenter, Mr Farage said: ‘I think the timing of this general election has quite a lot to do with me.

‘He (Mr Sunak) was scared. He’d heard rumours – true or not, he’d heard rumours – that I was going to go into the frontline political fray, and if he gave me a six-month run against the worst most insincere Conservative prime minister in history, against the most boring house party guest as leader of the Labour party … I think Reform was a very big factor in this decision.’

He added that Mr Sunak had ‘chosen suicide over obliteration’, and was likely to be left with 150-180 seats, compared to 50 if he waited another six months.

Mr Farage has previously stressed that he will not be joining the Tories, despite a ‘very sweet’ suggestion from Liz Truss that he would be welcome.

The campaign got off to a less than auspicious start last night as Mr Sunak announced the summer election in a dramatic – and soaking wet – Downing Street statement.

As his suit became drenched, and with protesters playing the New Labour anthem of ‘Things Can Only Get Better’ in the background, Mr Sunak pointed to inflation being ‘back to normal’ and insisted he was ‘stopping the boats’. 

Mr Farage said last night he will 'think about' his plans, suggesting Mr Sunak had gone early to prevent Reform from getting ready for the contest

Mr Farage said last night he will ‘think about’ his plans, suggesting Mr Sunak had gone early to prevent Reform from getting ready for the contest

Party leader Richard Tice has called a press conference at 11am after Rishi Sunak fired the starting gun on a July 4 contest

Party leader Richard Tice has called a press conference at 11am after Rishi Sunak fired the starting gun on a July 4 contest

‘The question now is how and who do you trust to turn that foundation into a secure future… now is the moment for Britain to decide its future,’ he said.

Even his own Cabinet was kept in the dark until the last minute, with Mr Cleverly telling ITV’s Peston ‘we don’t get particular advance notice’ and it was largely a matter for Mr Sunak and his inner circle.

The news caused disquiet among Tory MPs fearful of losing their jobs, and those who have already said they will not stand and are having to say goodbye to Parliament sooner than expected.

Despite speculation at Westminster about a Tory rebel effort to oust Mr Sunak and call off the election, one prominent critic of the Prime Minister said it was ‘too late’ to get rid of him.

Dame Andrea Jenkyns, who has called for Mr Sunak to go, said she understood ‘other letters have been going in’ to 1922 Committee chairman Sir Graham Brady but ‘colleagues, it’s too late, I told you six months ago we should have done this’.

Just two more days of Commons business have been scheduled, during which important legislation will have to be rushed through.

Mr Sunak launched a highly personal attack on Keir Starmer, swiping that he had 'no convictions' and voters cannot trust him

Mr Sunak launched a highly personal attack on Keir Starmer, swiping that he had ‘no convictions’ and voters cannot trust him

The campaign got off to a less than auspicious start last night as Mr Sunak announced the summer election in a dramatic - and soaking wet - Downing Street statement

The campaign got off to a less than auspicious start last night as Mr Sunak announced the summer election in a dramatic – and soaking wet – Downing Street statement

Party whips from the Conservatives and Labour are holding talks to work out what outstanding legislation can become law before prorogation – the end of the current parliamentary session – on Friday.

That includes the Victims and Prisoners Bill, which includes measures to establish a compensation scheme for victims of the infected blood scandal.

Sir Keir responded with his own statement last night saying he welcomed ‘a moment the country needs and has been waiting’.

‘A chance to change for the better your future, your community, your country,’ he said.

‘It will feel like a long campaign, I am sure of that, but no matter what else is said and done, that opportunity for change is what this election is about.’

Preparations are being made for a Conservative rally at the Excel centre later tonight with campaigning due to kick into overdrive.  

But before today the election had widely been expected in the Autumn, and the bombshell is threatening to set the Tory tinderbox ablaze, with MPs telling MailOnline that Mr Sunak has a ‘death wish’. They warned that the Parliamentary party will go ‘nuts’ at the prospect of charging towards a disastrous defeat.