Why specialists imagine the Trump-Biden debate is most vital in 64 years

In a race that Joe Biden and Donald Trump are each describing in historic terms, both are banking that tonight’s presidential debate could jolt Americans into paying more attention and tip the narrow band of swing voters who hold sway.

A rough performance by either of them could reset the race.

‘This week brings us potentially one of the most consequential debates since Mr. Kennedy and Richard Nixon’s,’ wrote longtime Republican pollster Frank Luntz, referencing the historic 1960 debate that many historians believe gave Kennedy a critical lift in the first debate of the modern television era.

The debate puts the incumbent president back onstage with the fierce rival who skipped his inauguration and used their last televised meeting to go after his son. Trump warns that ‘if we don’t win this election, we won’t have a country left’, as he faces three criminal trials in addition to the one that just resulted in a historic conviction this spring.

Wars in Europe and the Middle East have the U.S. and allies on edge, and Americans continue to register concerns about the economy and immigration and say the country is on the wrong track, giving moderators leverage to shape the terrain.

It sets up a seminal moment in an election that both Biden and Trump describe in epic language – Biden calls it the most important ‘of our lifetime’ and Trump calls it ‘the most important election in the history of our country.’

‘The expectations are already high for Mr. Trump, who dared Mr. Biden to debate at any time or place of his choosing. It is quite possible that Mr. Trump will regret issuing such a public challenge, and Mr. Biden may regret accepting the offer,’ he added in an op-ed. 

The Trump and Biden campaigns negotiated the ground rules after trading public challenges, with the Biden camp seeking an opportunity to reset the race earlier than the traditional fall debates, and Trump’s campaign seizing the chance to get back on stage with the target of Trump’s attacks. 

(The two men last shared the stage in a furious smackdown in Nashville where Trump accused Biden of corruption and referenced Hunter Biden and the ‘laptop from hell.’)

President Joe Biden’s team pressed to move up the debate from the traditional fall slot. Polls have him trailing Donald Trump in key swing states. In 2020, it was Biden who had the edge during fall debates

At a time of a fractured media landscape, millions of Americans are set to tune in to watch the event in real time at 9 pm tonight on CNN and other networks that carry the feed.

About 40 percent say they are likely to watch and listen to at least some of it. About the same amount say they will watch clips after the fact.

Those takes will be nearly unavoidable to media consumers, as broadcast, cable, and online outlets slice and dice the memorable moments and key barbs or put-downs.  

But party members are more likely than Independents to tune in – a signal that even a candidate who botches their performance has a chance to improve.

The first 1960 Kennedy-Nixon debate drew 65 million viewers. They were the first general election debates to be televised

As president, Donald Trump repeatedly interrupted Joe Biden during their 2020 debates. The two canddiates have been trading attacks in the run up to the Atlanta debate

About six in ten say they are ‘extremely’ or ‘very likely’ to watch the smackdown, indicating tens of millions will see what transpires. 

Biden may have had plans to eviscerate Trump on the airwaves through the summer and fall. But Trump was able to wipe away Biden’s cash-on-hand fundraising advantage, propelled by his Manhattan criminal trial – making ‘earned media’ events like the debates even more important.

Although a second debate is slotted for September, Trump has threatened to walk from debates in the past, and skipped the second scheduled debate in 2020. If either candidate balks, it would leave the Atlanta contest as voters’ only chance to evaluate the candidates side-by-side. 

Biden signalled just how much he is focused on the stakes with his schedule. He decamped to Camp David for a week for debate sessions, after resting up at his Delaware beach house.

Although he has received daily briefings on national security and events as they unfolded, the move included a suspension of his public events. The White House didn’t even hold daily press briefings in his absence — as top advisors helped prep the president.

Even Trump, who eschews formal practice sessions, kept a relatively low profile, holding a few fundraisers and trying out some of his most slashing attacks at a Saturday night campaign rally, where he also went on long tangents about water pressure and other pet peeves. 

Any event is critical in a close race, and this year’s election counts as one at this stage.

But ‘the presidential election isn’t a toss-up,’ concluded pollster Nate Silver in a post unveiling his new election model Wednesday. That’s because even though national polls show a virtual tie, Trump has an advantage in the electoral college, and swing state polls are showing Trump leading Biden where he needs to.

Each candidate faces their own challenges. With focus groups showing many voters were turned off by his repeated interruptions of Biden in 2020, Trump faces pressure to show a measure of restraint, although his strength has been to try to dominate opponents and hurl accusations that highlight their negatives.

Biden’s advisors know he must deliver coherent answers and avoid a signature gaffe, having been repeatedly mocked by Trump over stumbles and video clips the White House brands ‘cheap fakes.’

He can take one bit of advice from former Speaker Newt Gingrich, a Trump advisor whose wife Callista Gingrich was Trump’s ambassador to the Vatican. 

‘If I were Biden, I would stay away from the age issue and just say, “Look, I was wise enough not to try to overthrow the U.S. government,” Gingrich told NBC. ‘Go through a list of five things in a row and say, “I would rather have my age with wisdom than your total lack of seriousness.”‘ 

Biden has one data point in his corner: low expectations, fueled in part by Trump’s merciless attacks on his health and mental acuity. 

Nearly half of registered voters think President Joe Biden will fall flat in the debate, according to a new New York Times / Siena College poll. That includes 24 percent who think the president will do ‘not too well’ and a quarter who believe he’ll perform ‘not well at all.’