Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin have ‘crumbled world order’ as new ‘nuclear’ period emerges

A new deadly age of conflict with widespread adoption of nuclear weapons is on the horizon as Donald Trump cosying up to Russia sees the end of the current order, a security expert warns.

The united Western front behind Ukraine after it was invaded by Russia in 2022 has been ripped apart by the new US administration and with it we are facing a dramatic change in geopolitics. Trump has been scathing about Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky who hit back accusing him of living in a Russian-made “disinformation space”.

Trump has questioned the legitimacy of Zelensky’s position as Ukrainian leader and even suggested his country started the war as he claimed it didn’t deserve a seat at the negotiating table in peace talks this week with Russia.

But for Prof John Strawson, from the University of East London, says nothing surprises him about what Trump has said as he “already made it clear before he was elected including what he thought about Zelensky”. In fact the international relations expert is just “disappointed” that European leaders didn’t see this coming.

He believes Western Europe needs to play catch up and be ready militarily for a new, new world order – which he also fears will see many more countries arming themselves with nuclear weapons. It will be a new age where smaller countries will see the opportunity to invade and seek nuclear weapons as protection because they can no longer rely on the US.

‘Danger’ of nuclear war

“We have the danger of nuclear proliferation,” said Prof Strawson. “Now we have a situation where every small and medium sized country will want nuclear weapons. That will mean they will all think they have possibilities… It is like the end of the 19th century and realpolitik except now with nuclear weapons.

“Countries will see them as giving guarantees with countries like Romania and others looking to accelerate the making of weapons. People will look at the great power competition and it will be a way to protect themselves. India has them and showed how easy it was to get them. Ukraine wouldn’t have been invaded in the first place with nuclear weapons.”

And he said the change has already started with global structures designed for harmony since World War Two already collapsing. “The new world order has already crumbled – UN, the World Trade Organisation… I have never seen such chaos. We are going to construct a new world order with more actors, more weapons of mass destruction, reasons to open conflicts and this will spill over in Europe,” believes Prof Strawson.

European catch-up

There has been talk of a European-backed peacekeeping force in Ukraine if the conflict could be brought to an end, but it still remains unclear how it would be set up with Russia already ruling out the possibility. Keir Starmer said he would consider sending UK troops as part of a peacekeeping force but military experts have suggested the UK does not have the military strength to send many soldiers.

“The world is facing a different terrain and I am just disappointed that the European leaders appear surprised, with maybe just the Poles seemingly ready for this having put money into defence with 4% but they are literally on the border,” said Prof Strawson. “Other countries like France and the UK now need to play catch up. I think Starmer gets it with the need for increased defence spending and he is pressuring for that. And if we don’t then the idea of deploying troops is out of the question. We would need to have 5,000 troops there and so that would mean having 20,000 available for rotation.”

The former head of the British Army, Lord Dannatt, has previously said such a force would need around 100,000 troops – where the UK could contribute around two-fifths. “We just haven’t got that number available,” he said on Saturday, adding that it would be very expensive to strengthen the Army. And General Sir Adrian Bradshaw, a former NATO commander, pointed out: “This cannot be a token force, it cannot be something that observes bad behaviour and stands on the sideline.”

Putin returns from the cold

Russian President Vladimir Putin said he would like to meet with Trump, after senior American and Russian officials held talks in Saudi Arabia that were partially aimed at preparing just such a summit. The Trump administration has started charting the new course, reaching out to Russia and pushing for a peace deal, in an opposite approach to that of former president Joe Biden.

Senior officials from both countries held talks Tuesday to discuss improving ties, negotiating an end to the war and potentially preparing a meeting between Trump and Putin after years of frosty relations. “I would like to have a meeting, but it needs to be prepared so that it brings results,” Putin said Wednesday in televised remarks. He added that he would be “pleased” to meet Trump but noted that the US president has acknowledged that a Ukrainian settlement could take longer than he initially hoped.

“He likes powerful people like Putin and doesn’t have respect for those who he doesn’t see as powerful,” said Prof Strawson of Trump. And on how Russia is viewing the negotiations with the US, he added: “They are seeing it as a great opportunity as for them it will mean an end to sanctions with their economy not in a good shape. Putin likes respect.”

Prof Strawson also doesn’t believe Putin is likely to stop with his invasion as he has the “appetite” for more military action. “Russia has been extending its sphere of influence in Europe in countries like Moldova and Georgia,” he said. “He now has the appetite for more and the area around Kaliningrad, which is landlocked Russian territory is one area he could target. The more you give in to aggression the more you have to fear.”

Europe’s military weakness

European leaders have met in Paris to discuss the future of Ukraine and consider the implications of talks between the US and Russia. Starmer spoke of helping to protect Ukraine but believes a peacekeeping force would need a US backstop.

Prof Strawson said Europe’s weakness militarily has been an issue for a long time. It now means Europe has a weaker hand against Trump. “The only weakness of Starmer’s speech was where he talked about the backstop – US has been warning Europe for decades about its defence even Reagan mentioned it,” said Prof Strawson.

“A lot is down to Starmer as he is in the best position politically at the start of period in power. He needs to stand up to Trump with his tariffs and economic pressure, even right wing politicians in Canada are realising he is not a good thing. The question is how Europe can counterweight.”

Meanwhile other European politicians have given their views on Trump’s stance over Ukraine and a peace deal. Sweden’s Foreign Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard told Aftonbladet over possible elections: “Putin doesn’t want elections in Ukraine because he cherishes Ukrainian democracy. He wants elections to weaken Ukraine under the current state of emergency. We must not fall into that trap.”

German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius lashed out at the US for barring Ukraine from joining NATO. “The Americans made a mistake,” Pistorius said in an interview with Deutschlandfunk, adding concessions weaken negotiating positions against Russia. “The Americans seem to take the Europeans less seriously when it comes to geopolitical issues.”

Zelenksy won’t take bad deal

Zelensky said he “would like Trump’s team to be more truthful” in his first response to the striking claims the US president made, including suggesting Kyiv was to blame for the war. Russia’s army crossed the border on February 24, 2022, in an all-out invasion that Putin sought to justify by saying it was needed to protect civilians in eastern Ukraine and prevent the country joining NATO. Ukraine and its allies denounced it as an unprovoked act of aggression.

Prof Strawson said Zelensky has shown himself to be a tough figure who is unlikely to accept a bad deal for Ukraine. “Zelensky does not want to give in, a deal will depend on how he reacts but the deal undoubtedly will weaken Ukraine and the question is if they will accept it,” he said.

China will be emboldened

Looking to take advantage of the situation and become the new global power will be China, added Prof Strawson, who believes the country is playing the long game. “China will be very happy with this situation and the conflict in Russia has seen it be able to assert its influence over Russia,” he said. “They will now be thinking with the US and Trump it will be able to replace them internationally and they already have initiatives in many regions including in Africa. They are thinking in the long term and creating the best situation for them. At the same time with Taiwan they will be looking a the territory Russia might be able to take and will think of their plan to have Taiwan by the late 2020s using military measures.”