Probation Service being ‘set as much as fail’ below Labour gentle justice invoice, warn Lords- a day after police chiefs predict a crimewave

The Probation Service is being ‘set up to fail’ under Labour’s soft justice bill raising fears about monitoring of violent criminals set loose on the streets, Lords warned today.

Just a day after police chiefs sounded the alarm about the upcoming Sentencing Bill predicting it will unleash a crimewave on the streets of Britain, the House of Lords Justice and Home Affairs Committee has warned the Probation Service will be ‘overwhelmed’.

The proposed Sentencing Bill to tackle the prison overcrowding crisis will lead to tens of thousands fewer criminals being sent to jail each year.

Under the draft legislation, which is due to come into force next year, the use of short prison sentences will be limited and thousands of convicted criminals will be released earlier in their jail terms leading to a huge increase in offenders in the community being managed by police and probation.

The National Police Chiefs Council (NPCC) calculates this will result in a crime rise of four to six per cent, which would equate to around 360,000 additional crimes a year, on top of the 6.6 million offences recorded in the year to June 2025.

Forces are preparing for a spike in all crime types across the country, putting the public and victims at increased risk and leaving taxpayers with an estimated £400million bill in extra police costs.

The Probation Service is trying to recruit 1,500 officers a year for the next three years to manage expected demand, but the committee says this will not be enough.

Electronic tag monitoring will almost double once the bill becomes law as criminals who would ordinarily have been given custodial sentences will need to be managed remotely in the community.

Minister for Prisons and Probation Lord Timpson has been asked for more funding for probation

Today Lord Foster of Bath, Chair of the Justice and Home Affairs Committee, warned the Government needed to provide a new strategy for monitoring and a significant increase in funding for additional probation staff and training.

His committee has raised concerns about the ‘dire’ performance of some private contractors handling tag monitoring, saying they may not be able to cope with the sheer number of extra criminals in the community.

In a letter to Lord Timpson, the Minister for Prisons, Probation and Reducing Reoffending, Lord Foster highlighted ‘woefully inadequate resources promised by the Government’, saying: ‘We believe without major changes, the system risks being overwhelmed and the Probation Service is being set up to fail.’

His concerns mirror warnings by police leaders that no one in Government has considered the long-term consequences or cost of the reforms.

Head of the NPCC Gavin Stephens said: ‘Adequate funding for policing and probation to support these measures must be reflected. Significant change cannot be made without significant investment in the right areas.’

NPCC Chief Gavin Stephens

The top chief constable has predicted police will be forced to divert from solving crimes to bridging gaps in probation and victim support.

Police and probation also fear there will be a knock-on effect of a separate review by retired senior judge Sir Brian Leveson, commissioned by the Home Secretary, proposing heftier jail discounts for criminals who plead guilty and far wider use of ‘out of court’ punishments.

The Probation Service is already struggling, having only met 26 per cent of its own performance targets in 2024-25, down from 50 per cent in 2021-22.

Today Shadow Policing Minister Matt Vickers said: ‘The police are warning of a surge in crime because of Labour’s Sentencing Bill.

‘Their plans mean rapists, stalkers, child groomers, and paedophiles will have their prison time cut.

‘Labour do not care about public safety. We will all pay the price.’

A Ministry of Justice spokesperson said: ‘Tagging is a critical tool in our efforts to punish offenders and evidence shows it’s increasingly proving its effectiveness in cutting reoffending and keeping the public safe.

‘That’s why we are increasing the probation budget by around 45 per cent over the next three years and investing an extra £100 million into electronic monitoring so we can tag tens of thousands more offenders under our upcoming reforms.

‘We will carefully consider the committee’s findings and respond in due course.’