This Tennessee House Race Is Next Test Of Democratic Momentum

Democrats have all the electoral momentum in the world at the moment, and now they’re testing their luck in a Tennessee congressional district Trump carried by 22 points last year.

The special election to replace former Rep. Mark Green, a Republican who strangely retired in July to become some sort of entrepreneur, is between Democratic state legislator Aftyn Behn and Republican Matt Van Epps. It does not appear to be a toss-up, but it’s close enough to draw at least some outside investment by both the GOP and Democrats. One recent survey found Van Epps leading by 10 percentage points, which is closer than what the GOP would prefer.

“We’re cautiously excited about this race,” a national Democratic strategist who works on House races told HuffPost. “Anything even approaching a 10-point margin here is a clear sign of Democratic strength heading into 2026.”

With early voting already underway, the Dec. 2 election will be the first since off-year elections earlier this month saw Democrats sweep governor races and other contests up and down the east coast. The romp raised hopes of a “blue wave” in next year’s midterm elections, and a longshot Behn victory would cause GOP panic to hit new heights.

The stakes are significant. If Democrats can retake either the House or Senate, Republicans will lose the ability to pass partisan legislation, and Democrats will gain subpoena power they can wield against the Trump administration. Retaking the House would put impeachment on the table.

Perhaps sensing the danger, Trump’s super PAC is now spending money for the first time since 2024. The group, MAGA, Inc., is spending $15,000 on phone calls to voters and the president himself held a “tele-rally” this week to phone in support for Van Epps and some slams for Behn.

“Matt’s opponent in the race is a left-wing lunatic named Aftyn Behn, who, as you understand, is not the greatest and who’s been called the AOC of Tennessee because of how radical left and how dangerous her policies are,” Trump said on the call, according to the Nashville Banner.

Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin traveled to the district last weekend to rally volunteers. “Anyone who’s within 16 points right now is within striking distance,’ Martin said, according to the Tennessean. “And Aftyn is not only within striking distance, she’s on the verge of making this happen with all your help.’”

A Democratic group called Your Community PAC has deployed a catchy ad calling Van Epps a “hedge fund puppet” who will help Trump keep the government’s files on Jeffrey Epstein locked away. The group has received $700,000, a nonprofit funded by liberal foundations.

The precise state of the race remains murky, in large part because the financial standing of each candidate remains unclear. While Democrats have typically massively outraised Republicans in these sorts of low-profile special elections, Behn had only raised $188,000 to Van Epps’ $402,000 as of the end of September, according to FEC records.