Lord Gove says Covid Inquiry’s claims that 23,000 folks died as a result of ministers did ‘too little, too late’

Lord Gove today questioned the Covid Inquiry’s incendiary claims that 23,000 people died unnecessarily because lockdown came one week too late.

The former minister branded chair Baroness Hallett’s conclusion a ‘leap’, while a top scientist said it was impossible to say if the figure was true or not.

In her findings, Lady Hallett suggested the devastating death toll in the first wave of the pandemic could have been halved if ministers had acted one week sooner. 

She was quoting ‘modelling’ from discredited ‘Professor Lockdown’ Neil Ferguson, who later faced claims his data methods were unreliable and who quit as a government scientific adviser after he cheated social distancing rules to meet his married lover.

Responding to the £200million Covid Inquiry’s conclusion, which made headlines around the world yesterday, Lord Gove said: ‘I think it’s one thing to say it would have been more prudent to have locked down a week earlier – but it’s quite another to make the leap to claim that 23,000 lives would have been saved as a result.’

He told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: ‘This particular figure was a projection not a prediction. The inquiry report itself helpfully makes clear we need a better understanding of how modelling works.’

An NHS worker being tested for coronavirus at a temporary testing station at the height of the pandemic

The Covid-19 Inquiry’s second report contains the explosive claim that 23,000 died who could have been saved if lockdown had been imposed one week sooner 

Prof Ferguson’s modelling in 2021 suggested the first wave death toll could have been cut from 48,600 to 25,600, but his methodology faced heavy criticism during the pandemic for failing to take into account measures already in place to limit spread.

Oxford University Professor Carl Henegan, also interviewed on the Today programme, added further doubt to the 23,000 figure.

He claimed it was not possible to say if it was true or not, saying: ‘It’s just not clear to say, if we had locked down week earlier, 23,000 lives might have been saved, based on modelling.’

This was a judge-led inquiry, he said, rather than ‘an epidemiological sort of investigation’, adding: ‘There was no assessment of the peer-reviewed literature. You would expect someone to do a systemic review, given that they’ve got £200million.’

It was put to Prof Henegan that the 23,000 figure had ‘political implications’ – with claims it could damage pandemic Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s chances of returning to frontline politics – and he repeated the figure was unreliable.

Meanwhile Lord Gove, who apologised for mistakes made during his time in office during the crisis, said a ‘singular focus’ on Mr Johnson’s role ‘distorts the complexity of decision-making’. He said the 23,000 figure should not be ‘hung on the necks’ of Mr Johnson or his ministers.

Clinical staff caring for a coronavirus patient at the intensive care unit at Royal Papworth Hospital in May 2020

Chris Whitty, Boris Johnson and Patrick Vallance speak at Downing Street on March 3, 2020

Year eight boys wear face masks at Moor End Academy in Huddersfield on September 11, 2020

He also questioned Lady Hallett’s conclusion that the devastating lockdowns could have been avoided altogether, if ministers had not done ‘too little, too late’.

Lord Gove said: ‘It’s certainly the case that some sort of restriction on social mixing, on social liberty, was always going to be required to suppress the spread of the virus.’

The Covid Inquiry’s 760-page second report found that childhood was ‘brought to a halt’ by the draconian lockdowns.

Young lives were blighted even though the ‘vast majority’ of children were immune to the deadly virus, it added. Their education and wellbeing were sacrificed to save their elders.

Lady Hallett said: ‘Steps taken to protect the adult population…brought ordinary childhood to a halt’, adding: ‘For most children, the closure of schools, the inability to see friends and the requirement to stay at home, were of profound consequence.’

She said scientists, civil servants, ministers and the devolved governments had all failed to react fast enough in early 2020.

But she heaped praise on Mr Johnson’s administration for leading the world in developing a vaccine to end the crisis. Lord Gove added: ‘Without his drive, we would not have had the vaccine. Its rollout was responsible for ensuring we were the first country to put jabs in arms.’