Brollies on the prepared Brits! UK rainfall is at a degree not anticipated till 2048 – and it is set to get even WETTER
Britain is renowned for its miserable weather – and now scientists have confirmed just how bad things really are.
A new study has revealed that the UK is already experiencing levels of rainfall not expected until 2048.
Researchers from Newcastle University found that winter rainfall changes are accelerating much faster than previously expected, with climate change to blame.
After re–examining weather data from 1950 to 2024, the researchers discovered that the UK’s climate is now 23 years ahead of previous predictions.
This unexpectedly rapid change is putting the UK at serious risk of winter flooding.
Co–author Dr James Carruthers told the Daily Mail: ‘We know from observations and theory that with increasing temperature, the atmosphere can hold more water, meaning that rainfall will get heavier.
‘Increasing winter rainfall increases soil moisture across the country, making it more likely for flooding to occur, even from smaller storms.
‘Essentially, it loads the gun for flooding.’
The UK is facing rainfall levels not expected until at least the mid–2040s as climate change accelerates changes to Europe’s weather. Pictured: Climate models predicted rainfall changes with increases shown in blue and decreases shown in red
Scientists’ climate models predicted that the UK would see more rain over the winter months, but underestimated just how fast these changes would come about, leaving the UK at risk of flooding. Pictured: Pedestrians in London take shelter during Storm Claudia
To understand how human actions are changing the world, scientists use complex computer simulations called climate models.
These models simulate lots of different aspects of the climate, such as weather patterns, ocean temperatures, and the effects of pollution in the atmosphere.
Our current best climate model is called the CMIP6, which combines the results of over 100 different simulations into an extremely accurate model of the world.
However, even with tools like CMIP6, it is still very difficult to separate human–caused changes from natural variations in the climate and estimate changes to rainfall.
Dr Carruthers says: ‘It’s been known for a while now that these types of models underestimate extreme rainfall because they do not properly simulate the important processes required for heavy rainfall.
‘What’s new and interesting in this paper is that we didn’t know that they also underestimated the rate of increase in seasonal mean rainfall.’
In their new study, published in Environmental Research Letters, the researchers examined how large–scale atmospheric circulation patterns, including shifts in the North Atlantic jet stream, interact with human–caused warming.
This method allowed them to separate natural variability in climate from the effects of burning fossil fuels.
This warning comes after the UK was battered by Storm Claudia, which caused the worst flooding in 30 years in the Welsh town of Monmouth (pictured)
Even after accounting for natural changes, they found that the changes to northern Europe’s weather patterns were much greater than the CMIP6 predicted for the same period.
This means the UK and northern Europe are facing climate–induced rainfall changes that most scientists didn’t expect to see for almost 25 years.
At the same time, changing weather patterns mean that winters in the Mediterranean are becoming significantly drier – leading to greater risks of drought.
Similarly, the researchers found that these changes are also happening faster than the climate models had predicted.
This is because the warming effects of burning fossil fuels don’t affect every part of the world in the same way.
‘The moisture budget means that if rainfall increases in one location, it will decrease elsewhere,’ says Dr Carruthers.
‘Broadly speaking, this is known as “wet gets wetter, dry gets drier”.’
Climate change’s effect on weather patterns also means that some places are hit by both droughts in the summer and floods in the winter.
Researchers say that the unexpectedly rapid change means the UK may not be prepared to face the worst effects of climate change. Pictured: Flooding in Monmouth
For example, even though the UK’s winters are getting much wetter, research also shows that we are facing longer and hotter summers with an increasing risk of heat waves.
The researchers say their findings show that action to prepare for climate change’s worst effects needs to be taken urgently.
This comes just a month after Monmouth, Wales, was struck by the worst flooding in 30 years during Storm Claudia.
The authors stress that the UK and Europe must accelerate and strengthen their adaptation planning to protect communities from worsening winter floods, as many systems are planned using earlier climate model projections.
The researchers warn that drainage systems, flood defences, and emergency services may be underequipped for the levels of climate change–induced rainfall.
Without ‘rapid action’, communities will face increasingly severe and frequent floods that will damage homes, transport networks, and critical services.
Co–author Professor Hayley Fowler, a climate scientist from Newcastle University, says: ‘What we saw recently in Monmouth is another stark reminder that the UK is already facing severe weather impacts driven by our continued reliance on fossil fuels.
‘It is vital that politicians understand the science: the risks are accelerating, and delaying action will put more lives at risk.’
Carbon emissions and the greenhouse effect: A primer
The greenhouse effect is the reason our planet is getting too hot to live on.
CO2 released by human activity is accumulating as an ‘insulating blanket’ around the Earth, trapping more of the sun’s heat in our atmosphere.
Without the natural greenhouse effect, heat would pass outwards from the Earth’s surface into space – making it too cold to live. But emissions of gases such as CO2 and methane push the greenhouse effect too far – acting as a blanket that traps heat
CO2 – and other greenhouse gases – are emitted by actions such as burning fossil fuels like coal for energy, burning forests to make way for livestock and
Fertilisers containing nitrogen produce nitrous oxide emissions – another greenhouse gas.
Meanwhile, fluorinated gases are emitted from equipment and products that use these gases.
Such emissions have a very strong warming effect, up to 23,000 times greater than CO2.
Sources: European Commission/BGS/NASA
