Dems Have A ‘Huge Advantage’ In Midterms Following Texas GOP Loss, CNN’s Harry Enten Says

On Feb 6, 2026

CNN’s chief data analyst Harry Enten on Wednesday predicted that a “huge Democratic rebound” could be on the horizon in this year’s midterms after the party’s stunning win in a Texas special election. (Watch his analysis below.)

Enten highlighted polling showing Democrats with a “huge advantage” over Republicans in New York in 2026 House races (by a margin of +27 points), more than doubling Vice President Kamala Harris’ margin of victory in the state (+13 points).

Enten said GOP representatives in the state like Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), who is up for reelection in November, ought to be “really worried” about the possibility of a blue wave.

“And oftentimes, Democratic majorities are built on states like New York, eliminating the few Republicans that actually represent it in the House,” he added.

Enten turned to California, where Democrats are polling at +28 points over Republicans in 2026 House races, a jump from Harris’ margin of victory in her home state back in 2024 (+20 points).

“This is the type of number, if you’re Democrats, you’re giving two thumbs up for because this looks like the type of number you want if you want a Democratic majority in the House,” said the CNN data chief of the party’s edge in the polls.

On Saturday, Democrat Taylor Rehmet flipped a long-held GOP Texas state Senate seat, beating Donald Trump-backed Republican Leigh Wambsganss in a special election run-off in a district that the president took in the 2024 election.

Sean Spicer, who served as White House press secretary in Trump’s first term, said lawmakers in the state have expressed their concerns to him over Rehmet’s victory and claimed one official told him that the seat flip was an “8.5 on the Richter scale.”

pic.twitter.com/rWC481bxwz

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) February 4, 2026

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Meanwhile, in TX, House polling shows a double-digit gain for Dems from the 2024 baseline.Overall: chance of a Dem landslide in 2026 is increasing. pic.twitter.com/rWC481bxwz— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) February 4, 2026nnn","options":{"_hide_media":{"label":"Hide photos, videos, and cards","value":false},"_maxwidth":{"label":"Adjust width","placeholder":"220-550, in px","value":""},"_theme":{"value":"","values":{"dark":"Use dark theme"}}},"provider_name":"Twitter","thumbnail_height":720,"thumbnail_url":"https://pbs.twimg.com/amplify_video_thumb/2019109567766958080/img/1CKROQQV4FanPydo.jpg:large","thumbnail_width":1280,"title":"(((Harry Enten))) on Twitter / 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Big state polling is showing a huge rebound for Dems in NY & CA (where there are plenty of GOP House seats) from 2024.

Meanwhile, in TX, House polling shows a double-digit gain for Dems from the 2024 baseline.

Overall: chance of a Dem landslide in 2026 is increasing. pic.twitter.com/rWC481bxwz

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) February 4, 2026

Enten referred to Texas Republicans’ push to “squeeze out” more seats in their favor via their redistricting efforts.

He stressed that Republicans in the state now hold a slim polling advantage over Democrats (by a margin of +2 points) leading up to the midterms, a notable drop from Trump’s margin of victory in the state back in 2024 (+14 points).

“This looks a whole heck of a lot like what we saw in 2018 when Republicans barely won that House vote,” Enten said.

Later in the segment, he flagged the strengthening chances of a Democratic “blowout” in November, noting that Kalshi prediction market odds of the GOP taking under 193 House seats have jumped from 8% to 26% in the past three months.

″[A] 26% chance, not just that Democrats win back the House but that Republicans really fall through the floor,” he concluded.

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