Putin may defeat NATO with simply 15,000 troops, consultants warn
Russia could defeat NATO with its army of just 15,000, European experts have warned.
In a war game simulating a Russian assault on the organisation, former German and NATO officials revealed that President Vladimir Putin could secure a victory within days of launching an attack.
Following the exercise, security experts have also cautioned that Russia could be positioned to execute such an operation within just 12 months.
The simulation envisions events unfolding in October 2026, with Russia attempting to capture the Lithuanian city of Marijampole.
Putin would need just 15,000 troops to gain control of the Baltic nation, with the simulation highlighting NATO hesitation.
Austrian military expert Franz-Stefan Gady, who took on the role of the Russian Chief of the General Staff in the simulation, said the game saw the US decline to activate NATO’s Article 5, which would force all members to defend an ally from attack.
Meanwhile, Poland activated its forces but ultimately decided against dispatching its troops, while Germany was reluctant to respond as Russia advanced.
‘Deterrence depends not only on capabilities, but on what the enemy believes about our will, and in the wargame my “Russian colleagues” and I knew: Germany will hesitate. And this was enough to win.’
He added that to achieve its military objectives in the Baltic States, ‘Russia doesn’t need to invade Lithuania, Latvia, or Estonia. It can establish so-called fire control from Belarus and Kaliningrad.’
Experts have warned that Vladimir Putin could defeat NATO with 15,000 troops
FILE PHOTO: Russian soldiers, who were involved in the country’s military campaign in Ukraine, march in columns during a parade on Victory Day, marking the 80th anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany in World War Two, in Red Square in central Moscow, Russia, May 9, 2025
This would mean, he says, that the most important strategic positions are decked out with rocket launchers, artillery and drones, which would also prevent the enemy from intervening, meaning Russia would need ‘not a single soldier’ in the Baltics.
Polish security analyst Bartłomiej Kot, who participated in the game, told the Wall Street Journal: ‘The Russians achieved most of their goals without moving many of their own units.’
He added that NATO’s response was focused on de-escalation when dealing with provocation from Putin.
The warning from security experts comes as the US brokers talks between Russian and Ukrainian envoys to halt the four-year-old invasion of Ukraine.
The talks have been described by officials from both sides as constructive and positive, but there has been no sign of any progress on key issues in the discussions.
In an indication that Trump wants to accelerate the momentum of those efforts, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said last week that Washington has given Kyiv and Moscow a June deadline to reach a settlement
Trump, over the past year,r has set several deadlines that have come and gone without apparent consequences.
