Donald Trump’s tariffs dominated unlawful: Why it may very well be a Presidency-ending downside for him

What today’s Supreme Court ruling on tariffs means, and why it could cause serious problems for Trump’s Presidency

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Donald Trump warned that if the Supreme Court ruled his tariffs illegal, it would “literally destroy” America. And guess what the Supreme Court just did.

So what does it all mean? Well, cast your minds back six months or so. Remember that day in the White House Rose Garden where Trump slapped tariffs on every country in the world – including islands where there are only penguins?

Well, after a long battle, America’s highest court has decided that all that was illegal, and he wasn’t allowed to do it. See, according to the US constitution, tariffs are decided by Congress.

But Trump didn’t want to have to get them to approve every change he wanted to make.

So he tried to do it through an old “emergency” law that, he said, allowed him to do it himself?

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Why? Because almost every part of his agenda – from spending plans to foreign policy – has been anchored on him being able to slap tariffs on other countries.

The threat of tariffs being applied by his whim, often announced on social media, has been how he’s been able to bully countries into doing what he wanted.

All those wars he claims to have ended? The countries have all stopped fighting because they’re afraid of America slapping them with 100% tariffs. That’s it. That’s the ball game.

And it was all illegal. So what happens now?

Well, Trump reckons he has a plan B – the administration will almost certainly try and find a loophole – although legal experts are looking at today’s ruling and say it’s pretty broad, and might be loophole-proof.

In all likelihood, he’ll still be allowed to impose tariffs, but at much lower levels and only for limited periods.

If Trump can’t find a plan B, companies – including Costco, Chinese carmakers BYD and camera makers GoPro – are already lining up to get refunds from the federal government on the import taxes they’ve been paying for the last six months or so. That could amount to hundreds of billions of dollars.

Aside from that, today’s ruling has hurt Trump in two ways.

Firstly, Trump has lost his biggest international stick with which to bully other countries into doing what he wants. A threat of 15% tariffs for 150 days is not nearly as compelling as a threat of 100% tariffs permanently.

Secondly, this is the first time the Supreme Court has really told him no on anything like this scale. Trump stacked the court with conservatives during his first term – and even so, he lost this case by SIX TO THREE. It’s a signal from the court that Trump can’t just do whatever he wants without them pushing back.