‘Labour’s devastating lead to Gorton and Denton is a grim signal of bother forward’
Labour MPs, jittery at the threat from Reform on the right, now have the Greens to fear on the left as Keir Starmer’s claim that only his party could beat Farage was undermined
The by-election result was a bitter blow to Keir Starmer’s Labour party(Image: Getty Images)
There was a party who could keep Reform’s toxic politics out of Greater Manchester.
But it wasn’t Labour. Instead Hannah Spencer of the Greens pulled off a stunning upset, winning a comfortable majority in a seat Labour won with 13,413 votes just 18 months ago.
It is hard to overstate what a blow this is to an already demoralised party. For weeks, Labour MPs have been darkly muttering that a third place finish would be a disaster for Keir Starmer, who has only just survived a battle for his political life earlier this month.
Labour threw the kitchen sink at this by-election, deploying its well-oiled campaign machine that delivered a landslide general election victory in 2024.
Almost every Labour figure I’ve spoken to recently has been to Gorton and Denton, some several times. Popular politicians like Andy Burnham and Angela Rayner have been out knocking doors. Even Keir Starmer went on Monday, which is unusual for a Prime Minister.
READ MORE: Keir Starmer suffers nightmare defeat in Gorton and Denton by-electionREAD MORE: Gorton and Denton by-election: Live result as Greens SHOCK Labour and Reform with victory
The problem is that Mr Starmer has cast Labour as the anti-Reform party, but they weren’t the ones who voters chose as alternative to Nigel Farage and his mob. A similar thing happened in a Senedd by-election in Caerphilly last year, where Plaid Cymru were the ones to beat Reform and push Labour into third place.
A note of caution. It is unwise to extrapolate by-election results when thinking about a general election. A Labour source told me that the Greens may not be able to mobilise such support at a national level – which is probably true.
Governments of all stripes also tend struggle in by-elections as voters can give them a bloody nose in the safety of knowing it won’t cause wider chaos.
But in politics, perception matters. The Greens have shown themselves as capable of defeating Reform and offering a left-wing alternative to Labour. It also shows Zack Polanski’s party can win outside of the south – and strike a blow to Labour in its heartlands.
Labour MPs, already jittery at the threat from Reform on the right, now have the Greens to fear on the left.
Upcoming elections in Scotland, Wales and local councils in England have long been seen as a moment of danger for the PM. The stakes now could not be higher.
And then there’s the Andy Burnham problem. Mr Starmer had a hand in blocking him from standing, and will now face recriminations over whether the Greater Manchester Mayor could have won it.
That decision was always lose-lose for the PM. If he allowed Burnham to stand, Labour risked losing the Greater Manchester mayoralty instead. And he would have invited someone with naked leadership ambitions into Westminster.
But as I wrote at the time, the blame for that decision now sits squarely on his shoulders.
