What occurs subsequent in Middle East warfare as UK joins blitz and Trump reveals 4 week Iran plan

Donald Trump has pushed the world to the brink of global conflict after launching a mass blitz on Iran. The US President, 79, claimed the US and Israel’s war with Iran will last “four weeks” after taking out the country’s supreme leader.

Many Iranians have celebrated the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who ruled the country with an iron fist for almost 40 years, and the aerial onslaught has left the country facing an unpredictable new chapter.

And Britain has been dragged into the military action by allowing the US to use its airbases after Iran retaliated with attacks on civilian targets across the Middle East. Sir Keir Starmer said the move will help protect British lives.

Who is ruling Iran?

Tehran is gripped by a sense of uncertainty, with opponents of the Ayatollah celebrating his death and regime loyalists mourning his loss. He was only the second leader of Iran’s Islamic Republic, which established in April 1979 after a revolution overthrew its monarchy.

A three-person temporary leadership council has been formed to govern the country and assume the duties of supreme leader, who had the final say in all matters of state. Foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said a new supreme leader would be chosen in a few days.

Under Iranian law, this must be a senior leader with political and religious authority. Khamenei’s son Mojtaba, 56, has previously been pegged as a possible successor, but has never held government office.

Karim Sadjadpour, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, previously warned: “A grievance-driven commander could cast himself as an Iranian Putin, substituting nationalism for Islamism while continuing confrontation with the West.”

What are the chances of regime change?

Trump claimed 48 other senior regime figures had been also killed in the airstrikes and called for disgruntled Iranians to rise up and seize power from the chaos caused by the aerial pounding.

He said in a video: “Seize this moment to be brave, be bold, be heroic and take back your country. I made a promise to you, and I fulfilled that promise. The rest is up to you.”

But there is no official opposition in the country and while the tyrannical regime is weakened, it still boasts a 180,000-strong revolutionary guard which is ideologically loyal and has continued to fire missiles and drones across the Middle East.

What is Iran doing in response?

Iran has long had a tense relationship with its neighbouring countries and has previously attacked its own allies in the region. Experts say the country sees itself in a battle for its very existence and could seek to target sites that would damage the global economy.

On Monday morning, it was reported Saudi Arabia had shut down its Ras Tanura oil refinery – the biggest in the world – after it was hit in an Iranian drone attack. Global oil prices had earlier risen amid fears of economic uncertainty.

And experts warned the Saudi oil refinery attack could see a “significant escalation” and drag Saudi Arabia and neighbouring Gulf states closer to joining the US and Israeli military operations against Iran.

Does Trump have a plan?

The US president says he expected the military action to be a “four week process” and it had so far “gone as planned”. He said surviving Iranian leaders “want to talk, but said you “should have talked last week not this week.”

But he did not expand on what, if anything, America would do once the airstrikes end to help the regime change and has not given any indication he expects to send in boots on the ground.

He said he was “hopeful” a democracy could grow in Iran after the US and Israeli strikes end, but only went as far as saying: “It’ll be very interesting to watch, but a lot of things could happen and a lot of very positive things could happen.”

Is the UK getting involved?

The UK was not involved in any of the airstrikes over the weekend, but Sir Keir Starmer has allowed the US to use British airbases to strike Iranian missile sites for a “limited, defensive purpose.”

The PM said the UK “will not join offensive action” in Iran, adding: “We all remember the mistakes of Iraq and we have learned those lessons.” But he warned Iran’s military approach was becoming “more dangerous to civilians” and “putting British people at risk”.

And he released a joint statement alongside the leaders of Germany and France – dubbed the E3 – which warned they will “take steps” to defend their national interests, including “enabling necessary and proportionate defensive action.”

Trump said he was ‘very disappointed’ that the PM initially refused to help and moaned he took ‘far too long’ to change his mind and permit the strikes.

Brits abroad

Government officials are also said to be working on plans for the potential evacuation of more than 100,000 Britons who have registered their presence in the Middle East amid the escalating tensions.

But foreign secretary Yvette Cooper said around 300,000 British citizens are in Gulf countries targeted by Iran and urged them to follow the instructions of local authorities and monitor the Foreign Office’s travel advice, which officials expect to change rapidly.

It is understood any repatriation of UK nationals would likely be organised by the Foreign Office, with one potential route involving people travelling by land to Saudi Arabia from where they could board flights.

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