What World War 3 within the UK would appear like – conscription, rationing and value surges

As Middle East violence escalates and the UK is likely to send a warship, experts warn what World War Three could mean for Britain – from conscription to sky-high prices

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As violence, drone strikes and attacks intensify in the Middle East and the UK is ‘likely’ to dispatch a warship to intervene – conflict appears more probable than ever.

Sources revealed to The Times that HMS Duncan is ‘likely’ to be deployed following drone attacks on the US embassy in Saudi Arabia. This raises pressing questions about what World War Three would mean for the UK.

A conflict could manifest in numerous ways for the UK, including soaring prices, conscription, rationing and an unprecedented cost of living crisis. Former MP and ex-British Army officer Dr Mike Martin, for instance, cautioned that conscription may well become necessary. “Obviously if we got into a big war, we’d have conscription straight away,” Dr Martin told Big Issue.

“Would we need to conscript? Yeah, we would. Because ultimately, we’re not at a stage yet where you can replace people with drones. We’re a long way off from that. Drones are fine, as far as they go, but you still need people to occupy villages, hold ground, and all the rest of it. And that’s not going to change for quite some time.”

Despite last year Keir Starmer stating “nobody is talking about conscription” he has not revised his position since the escalation of violence in the Middle East. General Sir Patrick Sanders also cautioned the Government last year that they should be readying Britons for conscription “within six years” if Vladimir Putin continues to pose a military threat.

Conscription would initially target young men for the draft. In 1939 blokes aged between 21 and 22 were first called up, with the net then cast wider to include men aged between 18 and 41.

Ex-servicemen and reservists already possess combat expertise, placing them at the top of the list for potential call-up.

We needn’t look far into the past to find contemporary examples of rationing. Just five years back, during the pandemic, supermarkets were forced to impose customer limits on basics like loo roll, eggs and bread.

It may seem unlikely in today’s age of global supply chains, but food distribution could easily be disrupted should conflict erupt – not merely regarding availability through shipping routes, but owing to hoarding and panic purchasing as well.

Just a couple of years on, when Russia launched its assault on Ukraine, grocery costs rocketed, causing the price of numerous staple foods to skyrocket, with inflation reaching 11% in the UK due to rising food and energy expenses.

History and Policy.org noted: “The product restrictions and special opening hours that major food suppliers and retailers imposed on their customers in March 2020 are a historically novel form of rationing in which the state delegates responsibility for food rationing to private business.”

In 2020 the restrictions were brought in by shops themselves, rather than by government. However, should war break out, the government could assume this responsibility to avoid panic purchasing and guarantee everyone receives adequate essentials.

During WW2, food was categorised into three groups.

The first comprised guaranteed rationed items such as sugar.

The second group encompassed milk, eggs, fish, fruits and vegetables, whose availability wasn’t always assured.

The third consisted of staple foods like bread and potatoes, which remained uncontrolled so people could freely consume these basic foods to ward off hunger.

Natural gas futures prices have soared following the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran.

Data from Trading Economics reveals UK future prices for the fossil fuel jumping over 40% to £1.15 per therm on Monday (March 2).

This marks the highest level since February last year.

The spike occurred after Qatar’s state-backed energy firm QatarEnergy announced it had “ceased production” due to attacks on its facilities.

Gas prices in the UK serve as a crucial factor for domestic energy bill costs, suggesting a prolonged increase could impact households in forthcoming months.

The price surge might prompt the Bank of England to reconsider cutting interest rates at its next rate-setting meeting on March 19, a decision markets had broadly anticipated before the conflict began on Saturday.

UK retailers are also preparing for ripple effects that could reach British consumers through higher prices and reduced discounts. Whilst the effect will hinge on the duration of the disruption, climbing oil and shipping expenses, coupled with strain on essential ingredients and supply chains, may begin to emerge in online and retail pricing over the coming months.

Marty Bauer, a retail specialist at the ecommerce marketing platform Omnisend, has explained how this recent escalation will probably impact shoppers in both the immediate and longer term.

Bauer explained: “When tensions rise in the Middle East, energy prices are usually the first thing to move. If oil and gas become more expensive, it costs more to transport goods, run warehouses and manufacture products.

“That extra cost rarely disappears, and most of Britain’s biggest retailers will likely do anything to avoid it impacting their margins, so unfortunately, it tends to be passed down the chain, whilst making sure to avoid deterring consumers entirely.

“For shoppers, that usually means subtle changes rather than one big price jump. We often see fewer flash sales, shorter discount periods and small increases across a range of products. In the long term, we may see ‘shrinkflation’ become more noticeable in supermarkets, especially if the conflict doesn’t de-escalate soon.

“Goods transported from the rest of Asia pass through the Suez Canal into Europe, so conflicts in the Gulf region and around Cyprus could cause some short-term issues.

“The bigger picture for British households is inflation risk. If higher energy prices feed into household bills, shoppers tend to rein in non-essential spending. That often means more comparison shopping, switching to own-brand alternatives and waiting for promotions before buying.”