Diesel costs rising sooner than petrol as Iran battle already triggers 6p-a-litre enhance on the pumps

Diesel prices are rising more than petrol since the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, surging by 6p-a-litre to a 16-month high, new figures show.

The RAC said the average price of a litre of diesel jumped to 148.4p on Friday, having been at 142.4p when coordinated attacks on Iran by Israel and the US first hit on Saturday.

This is the highest UK average pump price for diesel since mid-August 2024.

Average petrol prices have also accelerated but at a slower rate, jumping by almost 4p per litre since Saturday to 136.5p.

These increases mean filling a typical 55-litre family car with petrol has already become £2 more expensive, with a rise of about £3.30 for diesel vehicles.

Retaliatory attacks by Iran, including targeting the Strait of Hormuz to block the water passage for tankers to transport oil out of the Middle East to overseas markets, has sparked a surge in oil prices, which have a significant effect on wholesale fuel prices. 

The price of Brent crude oil – which is typically used in the manufacture of both fuels – has risen by around 23 per cent over the past week, exceeding $90 a barrel on Friday.

Despite oil prices gaining, the RAC’s head of policy Simon Williams pointed to potential retailer profiteering from the situation in the Middle East as he suggested prices have increased despite current stocks of fuels having been purchased well before Saturday and at a far lower price.

‘While wholesale costs for any retailer buying in new stock will have gone up, it normally takes two weeks for price changes to work their way through to the forecourt,’ Williams explained.

However, he warned further pump price increases were ‘inevitable’ in what could be another costly period for Britain’s drivers. 

‘Brent crude jumped to $85 on Thursday, something we haven’t seen since July 2024,’ he said.

‘If the price of a barrel stays at this level, or increases, then further forecourt rises will be inevitable.’

Analysis of UK pump pricing comes in the wake of comments made by Qatar’s energy minister warning oil prices could rocket to more than $150 – double from where it was before the attacks on Iran – and trigger a global energy crisis.

Mr Kaabi told the Financial Times: ‘There will be shortages of some products and there will be a chain reaction of factories that cannot supply.’

With oil prices surging and no imminent end in sight for the conflict, the nation’s motorists will be questioning how long until forecourt prices rise towards record levels.

The highest price drivers have ever had to pay for petrol and diesel was in July 2022, with unleaded hitting 191.5p and diesel reaching 199p on the back of Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Based on Friday’s average UK prices, there is a 55p-a-litre gap to reach the petrol record and a 50p difference for diesel.

But with oil set to continue increasing, drivers’ fuel bills are likely to become more expensive. 

Analysis of the historic link between oil and fuel prices by think tank the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit estimated that if Brent Crude was to reach $100 a barrel, petrol prices would hit 150p per litre in the UK.

Earlier this week, the AA said there was ‘no need for drivers to break their refuelling routine’ over concerns of panic buying and motorists attempting to undercut rising prices.