Trump is contemplating ordering US troops to grab or blockade Iran’s Kharg island however ‘dangers irrevocable harm to international financial system’ – as Netanyahu additionally hints at placing boots on the bottom
Donald Trump is considering ordering American troops to seize or blockade Iran‘s Kharg island but risks ‘irrevocable damage’ to the global economy if he goes ahead with the move.
Four sources with knowledge of the issue told Axios the White House was discussing plans to occupy or blockade the island, which is Tehran’s most important economic asset and the launch point of 90 per cent of its oil exports.
‘We’ve always had boots on the ground in conflicts under every president, including Trump,’ a senior official told the outlet. ‘I know this is a fixation in the media, and I get the politics. But the president is going to do what’s right.’
At the end of last week, America announced the deployment of 5,000 marines and sailors, as well as USS Tripoli, an amphibious assault ship, to the Middle East, signalling the possibility of a ground operation.
It comes as Benjamin Netanyahu also hinted at putting boots on the ground as war rages on, admitting there must be a ‘ground component’ involved in forcing the Iranian regime to crumble.
The US President would target the island – the heart of Iran’s oil industry, located 20 miles off the beleaguered nation’s southern coast – in order to destroy the government’s oil revenues.
He could also use the seizure of Kharg island as a bargaining chip, choking off the regime’s oil profits to force it into reopening the vital Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 per cent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas flows.
But destroying its oil infrastructure would inflict ‘irrevocable damage to the Iranian economy and the global economy’, warned retired Gen. Frank McKenzie, the former commander of US Central Command, in comments to the Wall Street Journal.
The Israeli Prime Minister alluded to the possibility of deploying troops during a press conference, reiterating that his military was working to create the conditions for Iranians to topple the regime.
‘You can do a lot of things from the air, and we are doing, but there has to be a ground component as well,’ he said, before adding: ‘There are many possibilities for this ground component, and I take the liberty of not sharing with you all those possibilities.’
Donald Trump is understood to be considering sending American troops to seize Kharg island from Iran
A general view of the Port of Kharg Island Oil Terminal, located 20 miles off the beleaguered nation’s southern coast
‘Yes, the regime could change,’ Netanyahu told reporters. ‘Is it guaranteed? No. And it is up to the Iranian people in the final accounting to make use of the conditions that we’re [creating], weakening the regime.’
A road named ‘Oil Boulevard’ traverses Iran’s five mile island, once the world’s largest offshore crude oil terminals.
The road is said to have a loading capacity of roughly seven million barrels per day and is a vital organ for Iran’s sanction hit economy.
The seizure of Kharg island would mean the US would ‘not have to worry’ about Iranian attempts to keep the Strait of Hormuz shut, because it would get ‘all of the oil’ out of Tehran’s hands, Jarrod Agen, a White House adviser, previously claimed.
‘What we want to do is to get such massive oil reserves in Iran out of the hands of terrorists,’ Agen, executive director of the National Energy Dominance Council, told Fox.
The de facto closure of the waterway for most of the world’s tanker traffic has proved disastrous for global energy and trade flows, triggering the largest oil supply shock in history and surging global oil prices.
Oil prices gained on Friday despite leading European nations, Japan and Canada offering to join efforts to secure safe passage for ships through the strait, and the US outlining moves to boost oil supply.
On Monday, Trump threatened to strike Kharg island’s oil pipelines, after a US military attack last week ‘totally obliterated’ military targets while preserving oil assets.
‘We can do that on five minutes’ notice. It’ll be over. But for purposes of someday rebuilding that country, I guess we did the right thing, but it may not stay that way,’ he told reporters Monday.
‘Just one simple word, and the pipes will be gone too, but it’ll take a long time to rebuild that.’
He reiterated the point on Tuesday. ‘We can knock out their oil in Kharg Island,’ he told reporters.
‘The only thing we didn’t take down was the oil, because if we knock out, I call them the pipes, very complex, but if you do that, it will take them forever to rebuild.’
An operation to take over Kharg island would be perilous for American troops, positioning them directly in the line of fire, so it would have to take place after the US further degrades Tehran’s military capacity around the Strait of Hormuz.
‘We need about a month to weaken the Iranians more with strikes, take the island and then get them by the balls and use it for negotiations,’ a source with knowledge of White House thinking said.
On top of the three different Marine units on their way to the region, the White House and the Pentagon are considering sending even more soldiers soon.
‘He wants Hormuz open. If he has to take Kharg Island to make it happen, that’s going to happen. If he decides to have a coastal invasion, that’s going to happen. But that decision hasn’t been made,’ a senior administration official said.
By seizing the island and holding it for ransom – as opposed to destroying its oil infrastructure – Trump would avoid ‘permanently degrad[ing] the world economy’, McKenzie said.
Such a raid could be accomplished by sea, and may involve the USS Tripoli launching ship-to-shore vessels carrying Marines and equipment that can land directly on the shore.
Or, the seizure could be accomplished by air, using Marines aboard F-35Bs and helicopters designed to land without a runway.
There are two ways the aircraft could be launched: from the ships or from nearby Gulf countries, if those partners facilitate overflight and basing rights.
Crucially, positioning Marines on islands off Iran’s coast – rather than inside Iran itself – could be a loophole allowing the US President to claim he honoured his promise of never putting American boots on the ground in Iran.
‘I don’t see them in Iran proper,’ retired Vice Adm. John Miller, who formerly commanded US Naval Forces Central, told the Journal.
‘I think if you’re going to put them anywhere, the place where it would be on some of the islands that are around Iran, in the Gulf, that might give you some advantage from a tactical sense for a period of time.’
One US official, who confirmed to Reuters that the Trump administration was discussing plans to send ground forces to the island, warned that the operation would be very risky, as Iran has the ability to reach the island with drones and missiles.
The president cryptically denied any intention of ordering American ground troops onto Iranian soil, telling reporters as he spoke to Japan’s Prime Minister on Thursday: ‘No, I’m not putting troops anywhere. If I were, I certainly wouldn’t tell you.’
When asked on Tuesday if he was worried about Vietnam-style combat in Iran if he were to deploy troops, he shot back a decisive ‘No’, before adding: ‘I’m not afraid of anything.’
Any use of US ground troops – even for a limited mission – could pose significant political risks for Trump, given low support among the American public for the Iran campaign and Trump’s own campaign promises to avoid entangling the US in new Middle East conflicts.
Military action against Kharg also poses an enormous risk because it might ignite a full-scale war by Tehran against energy infrastructure across the Persian Gulf.
A widening crisis in the Middle East involving the destruction of oil field ports and natural gas storage depots could send crude prices surging, bringing the globe dangerously close to a recession.
Michael Rubin, a former Pentagon official and a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, said sending troops to take over Kharg island was a ‘no-brainer’ as it would choke off Tehran’s ability to bankroll its military.
However, he warned that attacks might embolden Iran’s hard-liners and make it more difficult for Washington to identify moderate leaders it could work with after the war comes to an end.
‘The lesson we learned in Iraq was that you don’t destroy the infrastructure of a country that you want to be your ally the day after regime change,’ he said.
It would not be the first time the island has been targeted, with Saddam Hussein’s forces heavily shelling it during the Iran-Iraq war in an attempt to cut off the country’s primary revenue stream.
‘If President Trump were to decide to seize this pivotal hub, it would deal a significant blow to the Iranian regime, as it would deprive them of a critical source of revenue,’ oil analyst Tamas Varga told CNBC.
‘Such a move would be reminiscent of the US intervention in Venezuela at the beginning of the year, when it effectively took control of the country’s oil sector.’
But he warned US forces would remain highly vulnerable to attacks and it would further intensify the conflict which has already spiralled out of control.
Attacking Kharg would ‘cut off Iran’s oil lifeline’ which is crucial for the regime, according to Petras Katinas, a research fellow in climate, energy and defense at RUSI.
‘Of course, with shipping via the Strait of Hormuz now stopped, they cannot sell oil anyway, but looking ahead, seizure would give the US leverage during negotiations, no matter which regime is in power after the military operation ends,’ he told CNBC.
