Keir Starmer will get out of ‘defensive crouch’ however pollster’s verdict will not cheer him a lot
Keir Starmer has kicked off Labour’s local election campaign buoyed by his ‘Love Actually’ moments – but the predictions make difficult reading for the Prime Minister
Keir Starmer faces a difficult nationwide election test next month(Image: Xinhua/Shutterstock)
Keir Starmer faces his biggest electoral test since winning the keys to No10 when voters head to the ballot box in May’s local elections – and the polls do not make for great reading.
But the Prime Minister is enjoying some green shoots of hope as a result of his ‘Love Actually’ moments with Donald Trump. The PM has borne the brunt of the unpredictable US President’s wrath in recent weeks after refusing to get involved in the spiralling war in Iran.
And by and large the public like what they’ve seen – something the PM will hope to build on in coming weeks. While Nigel Farage and Kemi Badenoch floundered, Mr Starmer has been able to get on the front foot, assuring voters he would not fall in line like Tony Blair infamously did in 2003.
READ MORE: Female teachers face sickening misogyny as ‘manosphere’ creates ‘ticking time bomb’READ MORE: ‘Good riddance’ verdict as Nigel Farage sacks housing chief over Grenfell insult
That’s gone down well among MPs who a few weeks ago felt like they were staring into an abyss. One remarked that for the first time in a while, it felt like No10 was not in a “defensive crouch”. There are also hopes – early at this stage, mind – that Mr Farage’s party is on the slide after topping the polls for months.
The right-wing party’s fiasco after housing spokesman Simon Dudley made crass remarks about the Grenfell Tower tragedy, resulting in his sacking, was damaging. And Mr Farage’s repeated trips to the US to fawn over Trump may finally catch up with him now the US President is catastrophically unpopular with voters.
That said, no one is expecting May 7 to be a good day for Labour. Last week Prof Stephen Fisher, an elections expert at Oxford University, predicted Labour might shed a huge 1,900 seats. Reform, on the other hand, could gain over 2,200, he said.
Local Government Chronicle experts Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher said the losses could be “well over” 1,000.
Polling analyst and Tory peer Lord Hayward described the May elections as “probably the most important and challenging I have ever seen”. Writing for The Mirror, he said: “What makes it even more difficult for the parties and their leaders is the lack of commitment to any cause. Canvassing myself and conversations with other politicians confirm the public don’t know if they will vote and if so for which party. It is a sad day for us all that allegiances are so weak primarily because the messages and delivery has been so poor in recent years.”
A backbencher from the 2024 intake told The Mirror: “I think we got into a mindset where a lot of us had accepted it was bad and there was no hope. I’m not saying that’s changed, but Keir’s handled the Iran crisis as well as could be hoped, and hopefully voters are picking up on Tories and Reform being in a mess about supporting Trump.
“It won’t save us, but at least we’re on the right side of this and we’re not in a defensive crouch.”
Another Labour MP said: “Things are tough in the polls, but it feels better when speaking to people on the doorstep than they would suggest. I expect we will outperform expectations in my area. Reform aren’t really doing anything – probably deliberate to avoid their candidates doing stupid things. I think Keir will be fine whatever happens as he’s doing a fine job on Iran.”
If the results are as bad as predicted, fresh questions will be raised about Mr Starmer’s future, with potential challengers waiting in the wings. But the PM’s aides were at a rush to hose down suggestions that a bad set of a results would signal a general election thrashing in 2029.
A Labour source said this week: “Mid-term local elections tend to be difficult for incumbent governments. They aren’t usually a barometer for how governments do at the next general election. We’ll be fighting for every vote and demonstrating to voters ahead of May that Labour is the only party with a plan to fix our NHS, support families with the cost of living, and restore pride in Britain. And it’s the right plan.”
The Tories famously struggled in David Cameron’s first term as PM, but went on to win the 2015 General Election. And in 2004, in the aftermath of the Iraq War, Labour lost the local elections by 11 points but went on to win the 2005 General Election.
But if the elections are that bad, it will take some work to convince disgruntled Labour MPs.
One said: “The electorate is looking for clarity as to how Labour will articulate solutions to the injustice of socioeconomic inequality, when people are working harder than ever and the cost of living rises for them, juxtaposed against those who are extracting their wealth out of the system.
“The sense that Government are not pulling every lever to help them, including looking at a wealth tax, is making it transactional and technocratic rather than the source of providing solutions and hope. People are searching for a relevance in their politics and the leadership with the values which speak to them.”
