Brace your self for a SUPER El Niño: Likelihood of surprising local weather sample skyrockets – as scientists warn it might push international temperatures to document highs

Scientists have warned that the world could be on track for a so-called ‘super El Niño’, which could push global temperatures to record highs.

El Niño years form part of a natural cycle known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and are marked by sustained warm temperatures across the Pacific Ocean.

Where this ocean surface warming exceeds 2C (3.6F), the event is often referred to as a ‘super El Niño’, although scientists themselves don’t use the term.

Now, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) warns that the return of strong or super El Niño conditions is likely as early as May or June.

Current measurements show that sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are rising faster than at any other time this century.

While it is not yet certain, this is a very strong sign that a powerful El Niño weather pattern is brewing.

Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Chief of Climate Prediction at WMO, says: ‘Climate models are now strongly aligned, and there is high confidence in the onset of El Niño, followed by further intensification in the months that follow.

‘Models indicate that this may be a strong event.’

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation is a natural climate pattern which cycles between a hot El Niño and a cool La Niña phase every two to seven years.

During the El Niño part of the cycle, warm waters that build up in the Pacific spread out and raise the Earth’s average surface temperature.

This heat ends up escaping into the atmosphere, raising the planet’s temperature for months.

Although this cycle has been going on for hundreds of thousands of years, current signs in the Pacific point to this year being one of the strongest El Niño patterns ever recorded.

It can be hard to predict events beyond April due to the natural changes of the seasons – known as the spring predictability barrier – but experts are almost certain that a strong El Niño is on the way.

A spokesman for the Met Office told the Daily Mail: ‘Current forecasts indicate a strong shift in the tropical Pacific later this year, with conditions increasingly supportive of the development of El Niño.’

The Met Office’s modelling suggests that sea surface temperatures could reach 1.5C (2.7F) above average, adding that this could be the ‘strongest El Niño event so far this century’.

Meanwhile, the American National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts there is a one in four chance of a ‘very strong’ El Niño, with temperature anomalies over 2C (3.6F).

Dr Marc Alessi, a fellow at the Union of Concerned Scientists, wrote in a blog post: ‘While the majority of models predict global monthly temperature anomalies will remain below 2C, the fact that there’s a non-zero chance of +2C happening is shocking.’

Likewise, Professor Paul Roundy, an atmospheric scientist at the State University of New York at Albany, wrote on X that there was ‘real potential for the strongest El Niño event in 140 years’.

These warnings have sparked concerns this year could be one of the hottest ever on record as El Niño sparks a wave of extreme weather.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation isn’t caused by climate change, and scientists don’t think that the greenhouse effect is making El Niño more severe – although the evidence is still developing.

However, a particularly strong El Niño can add a bump of extra heat to the atmosphere on top of the warming already being caused by climate change.

When this happens, temperatures are very likely to spike to record levels.

For example, scientists believe that 2024 was the hottest year on record due to a combination of the greenhouse effect and a particularly strong El Niño.

With a super El Niño looming on the horizon, there is now a very strong chance that both this year and next could be record-breaking years.

The WMO’s predictions for May and June currently show that land surface temperatures will be above average nearly everywhere on Earth.

These effects will be especially felt over North America, Central America, the Caribbean, Europe and North Africa.

But El Niño doesn’t just make the planet hotter; it also causes widespread disruption to global weather patterns.

A typical El Niño year is associated with increased rainfall and flooding over South America, the United States, the Horn of Africa and Central Asia.

Meanwhile, Australia and Indonesia can be hit with deep droughts, with an increased risk of wildfires throughout Southeast Asia.