UK meals costs set to be 50% increased in months as Brits issued main warning
UK food prices could be 50% higher by November 2025 compared to levels at the start of the cost-of-living crisis, according to new analysis from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU)
Households have already felt the impact
UK food prices are set to be 50% higher by November compared to levels at the start of the cost-of-living crisis, heaping fresh pressure on households already battling with soaring bills.
Fresh analysis from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) cautions the spike would represent a “grim milestone”, with price growth over just five years equalling what previously took nearly two decades.
The think tank stated a combination of climate-driven extreme weather, global supply chain disruption and ongoing exposure to volatile oil and gas markets is driving food inflation.
Essentials including pasta, frozen vegetables, eggs and beef have already climbed between 50 and 64% since 2021, while olive oil prices have more than doubled.
More recently, products such as butter, milk, chocolate and coffee have fuelled additional increases, with prices climbing more than four times faster than other food categories, as reported by City AM.
Households have already experienced the impact, with typical food bills rising by around £605 over 2022 and 2023, according to the ECIU. Energy-related costs alone represented roughly £244 of that rise.
Chris Jaccarini, food and farming analyst at the think tank, said the current geopolitical backdrop threatens to push prices even higher.
“Trump’s war in the Middle East is set to drive shopping bills higher as oil and gas prices spike,” he said, adding that climate pressures including droughts, floods and heatwaves were worsening the problem. Households already cutting back
The alert emerges as millions of families are already reducing food consumption. Research from Which? discovered approximately three million UK households are missing meals, with one in ten now going without food completely at certain times.
Consumer confidence has also plummeted, with 71% of adults anticipating the economy will deteriorate over the coming year and 85% worried about food costs.
Families are increasingly switching to cheaper options, with 43% purchasing lower-priced products and more than a third depending on budget supermarket ranges.
Anna Taylor, executive director of the Food Foundation, said: “Food prices rising this high and this fast leaves families on the lowest incomes with nowhere left to cut except the food on their plate”.
“When that happens, people skip meals, children go hungry, and diet-related illness rises”.
Ministers have also cautioned that the economic consequences of the Middle East conflict – including elevated energy and fertiliser expenses – could continue filtering through into food prices for months, even after tensions subside.
Chief secretary to the Treasury Darren Jones said the impact could persist “eight-plus months” after any resolution, as increased input costs work through supply chains.
For the latest breaking news and stories from across the globe from the Daily Star, sign up for our newsletters.
