David Haye leaned back and smiled when asked about Jake Paul’s chances against Anthony Joshua. Not because he thought the YouTuber-turned-boxer had one but because, in Haye’s eyes, that was never really the point.
‘Everyone thinks this fight is about Jake Paul,’ Haye told Daily Mail Sport via HighBet. ‘It isn’t. This is about Anthony Joshua. Jake can get in the ring, slip over, bang his head and knock himself out and that’s the end of it. But if AJ gives Jake Paul even 30 seconds of success, he’ll be crucified.’
That, Haye believes, is the brutal imbalance at the heart of boxing’s strangest blockbuster. Paul’s job is simple: turn up, be brave, and absorb the attention of a global audience. Joshua’s task is far more unforgiving. Anything short of a devastating first-round demolition will be framed as failure.
‘Doing enough isn’t enough,’ Haye said. ‘AJ can’t win in round three. He has to win in round one, and it has to be clean, destructive, clinical. He can’t get clipped. He can’t be pushed back. This has to be his sharpest performance.’
Haye is almost admiring of Paul’s audacity. He acknowledges the gulf in size, experience and resume, yet still respects the willingness to step into the ring with a former heavyweight champion. ‘I respect the platform Jake’s built, and I respect the bravery,’ he said. ‘The whole world is going to watch this. But the microscope is firmly on AJ.’
Still, admiration has limits. Haye struggles to reconcile Paul’s confidence with what he imagines life must be like behind closed doors. ‘If you’re getting bashed up every day in sparring, why would anyone believe you can suddenly do something on fight night, under the lights?’ he said after images emerged of Paul with a black eye following a sparring session with Lawrence Okolie.
David Haye leaned back and smiled when asked him about Jake Paul’s chances against AJ
Joshua (pictured right) and Paul (pictured left) will go toe-to-toe on Friday night in Miami
‘It doesn’t make sense. Something must be happening for them to feel confident enough to put him in there. But I find it hard to believe, having seen Okolie give him a black eye and he wouldn’t have been going at Jake any more than 50 per cent.’
For Joshua, however, preparation is where the real story lies. And Haye believes his decision to work closely with members of Oleksandr Usyk’s team could be pivotal, not just for this fight, but for the next phase of his career.
‘I think working with Usyk will get AJ battle-hardened, not just physically fit,’ Haye said. ‘I’m sure if he did CrossFit or Hyrox, he’d smash it. He always looks amazing. But this is about hard rounds. Sparring guys who might be better than you in certain departments. Putting yourself in uncomfortable positions to bring the best out of you. AJ hasn’t had that in a while.’
In Haye’s view, Joshua’s previous camps may have been too comfortable – environments where he held too much control.
‘He could kind of pick and choose who he sparred in previous camps,’ Haye said. ‘With Usyk’s team, it’s just, no you’re sparring him, him and him. That’s the difference. They are pushing him to the limits and training him like he’s never trained before. And, AJ has to get on with it.’
That shift in power dynamic is significant. Joshua is no longer the unquestioned alpha in the room. Usyk is the reference point, the standard, and Haye believes that can only benefit him.
‘I think it’s a very positive thing,’ Haye said. ‘The only feedback I ever got before was that AJ was in control and making all the decisions in camp. That’s probably the worst thing in heavyweight boxing. Floyd Mayweather was in control and it worked for him, but heavyweight boxing is different. AJ can’t be calling the shots.’
Haye points to the nature of sparring as the key distinction.
The fight on Friday night will be Joshua’s first since he was crushed by Daniel Dubois last year
‘You don’t need conditional sparring where you’re just using the jab or having no head shots’, he said. ‘You need live rounds. Pay the sparring partners a bonus to knock him out. Give them two rounds to try and take his head off. That’s the energy he needs to feel comfortable in the battle zone.’
It is that ‘battle zone’ where Haye feels Joshua has often struggled, moments when fights have become awkward rather than fluid.
‘As soon as it becomes a real fight, it doesn’t always flow for him,’ Haye said. ‘Even against Dubois, it was awkward. I don’t believe he’d had anyone in sparring coming at him with that same intensity. With Usyk’s team, sparring is on point. That’s how you learn to live in those moments.’
Beyond the immediate spectacle, Haye also believes the bout with Paul carries strategic value. Win emphatically, and Joshua’s stock rises – commercially and politically – ahead of long-mooted talks with Tyson Fury.
‘A devastating win against Jake Paul helps his negotiations when it comes time to sit down with Tyson Fury,’ Haye said. ‘Two massive fights, close together, big profiles, lots of eyeballs. That only helps him. Flattening Jake Paul in America also open the American market for AJ making his position stronger for negotiations with Fury.’
Critics argue Joshua risks too much by preparing for an opponent so far beneath his level. Haye disagrees.
‘That’s amazing professionalism,’ he said. ‘You treat it like a high-profile sparring session in your mind. People say it’s bad for him, I think it’s the opposite. I think this helps rebuild the confidence he’s been struggling with.’
And yet, for all his analysis, Haye cannot resist the chaos boxing so often delivers.
‘I’ve actually bet on Jake Paul to win by no contest, draw, technical draw, something crazy,’ he said, smiling. ‘I was saying the other day you will get about 10-1 odds if you go for it.’
He is quick to add a disclaimer.
‘Don’t put everything you own on it though,’ Haye said. ‘Crazier things have happened but there is no doubt, this would be the biggest sporting upset – not just in boxing, in any sport – if someone with such a lack of world-level experience beats someone who’s proven himself at world level.’
It is said partly in jest. Mostly in awe of the stakes.
Because if Jake Paul is gambling on belief, Anthony Joshua is gambling on expectation and, as David Haye sees it, that is the far riskier bet.
INTERVIEW WITH DAVID HAYE COURTESY OF HIGHBET