Fears have been raised that the imminent expiration of New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) could trigger a dangerous new nuclear arms race amid already rising global tensions
The last remaining nuclear arms control treaty between the US and Russia is set to expire within hours. The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) comes to an end at midnight on Thursday (February 5), leaving the world dangerously exposed to the potential risks of a nuclear arms race.
It comes amid rising global tensions. Once New START expires, the two countries with the world’s largest nuclear arsenals will face an era without any formal restrictions on their nuclear forces for the first time since 1972.
The Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) recently published an in-depth analysis of this issue. Jennifer Knox, research and policy analyst for the Global Security program at the UCS said: “The expiration of New START would be massively destabilizing and potentially very costly both in terms of economics and security. If the United States and Russia expand their arsenals, China and other countries may feel compelled to join in the arms race.
“The United States and Russia already have enough deployed nuclear weapons to kill tens of millions of people in an hour and devastate the world. Letting New START lapse would erase decades of hard-won progress and only make the world less safe.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin has publicly offered to abide by New START’s provisions for another year if the United States does the same.
Trump said the offer sounded “like a good idea” but never officially followed up. In an interview with The New York Times in January, he seemed unfazed by New START’s imminent end.
Dr. Gretchen Goldman, president and CEO of UCS said: “The second Trump administration has rolled back important progress on so many fronts, from climate and clean energy to democracy and human rights, putting our collective safety and security increasingly at risk.
“That this administration would allow universally beneficial nuclear arms control treaties to lapse is not shocking, but the lack of any care to these foundational agreements that protect us all should alarm everyone.”
New START includes broad provisions capping the number of deployed nuclear warheads at 1,550 and their deployment systems at 800. Stocks of non-deployed intercontinental and submarine-launched ballistic missiles are not limited, but they are allowed to be inspected by each side.
Its expiration leaves the US and Russia, the world’s two largest nuclear powers, without a specific mutual agreement on how big their arsenals can grow and how many nuclear weapons can be deployed.
Russia has 5,459 nuclear warheads while the U.S. has 5,177, according to data from the Federation of American Scientists. This number accounts for about 90% of all nuclear weapons in the world.
In a post on X, Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation warned: “That’s it. For the first time since 1972, Russia (the former USSR) and the US have no treaty limiting strategic nuclear forces. SALT 1, SALT 2, START II, SORT, New START – all in the past.”
His words were accompanied by a GIF from Game of Thrones captioned ‘Winter is Coming.’
The post attracted 243k views and hundreds of comments. One said: “Does this mean the world is coming to an end? There are no winners in nuclear war.”
Another added: “That’s a concerning development. Hopefully, global leaders find a way to restore arms control and maintain stability.”
While one asked: “So who actually benefits when the world’s two biggest nuclear powers have zero limits on their arsenals?”
Another commented: “The absence of binding constraints between moral discipline that once governed nuclear deterrence, shifting it from managed restraint to unchecked sovereignity – where human survivalis endangered by hostile intent, but by the possibility of irreversible miscalculation.”
Another commented: “Five decades of arms controls undone. No caps, no inspections, no trust, just escalation and risk.
“This isn’t strength, it’s collective failure and the world pays the price.”