Pressure is intensifying on Keir Starmer today after Labour‘s drubbing in local elections.
The PM is facing growing unrest in his own ranks, with dozens of MPs suggesting he needs to go.
Tomorrow Sir Keir is due to give a make-or-break speech laying out his ‘vision’ for reviving Labour’s fortunes.
But backbencher Cat West has already promised to try to force a leadership contest in the morning.
She is attempting to kick the Cabinet into action by seeking nominations from MPs for the party’s top job.
Many suspect Ms West, whose seat is in London, is an outrider for Health Secretary Wes Streeting. An early leadership election could benefit him over Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, who is not currently in the Commons.
However, it is far from clear Ms West can get support from the 81 MPs needed to spark a full contest.
So how could Sir Keir be ousted from Downing Street?
Pressure is intensifying on Keir Starmer today after Labour’s drubbing in local elections
A formal challenge?
Under the Labour Party’s rulebook, if there is no current vacancy for party leader, nominations may be sought by potential challengers.
Those seeking to replace Sir Keir must be nominated by 20 per cent of Labour MPs.
The party currently has 403 MPs in the House of Commons, so this means each challenger will need the support of 81 MPs to force a leadership election.
Sir Keir himself will not be required to seek nominations to enter a leadership election, should he be challenged and he wishes to fight on.
As the sitting party leader, his name will automatically go on the ballot paper.
Those who have been Labour members for at least the previous six months will be able to participate in a leadership ballot.
Both party members and affiliated supporters, such as trade union members, will then vote in the leadership ballot on a ‘one person, one vote’ basis.
A candidate who receives more than half of the votes will be declared the winner.
If there are more than two candidates and no candidate gets half of the votes on a count of first preference votes, a redistribution of votes will take place according to preferences indicated on the ballot paper.
The winning candidate will then have to visit the King to confirm their position as PM.
A Cabinet revolt?
Perhaps a more likely way of forcing Sir Keir out would be to make it practically impossible for him to continue.
A large section of the Cabinet quitting, or a huge groundswell in the Parliamentary party, could be enough to convince him to go.
That would have the benefit for rivals of clearing the way for a wider contest, rather than requiring them to unite around one challenger.
Boris Johnson suffered a similar fate in 2022, when a slew of ministers quit. Mr Johnson ruefully remarked afterwards that ‘when the herd moves, it moves’.
Backbencher Cat West is threatening to launch a ‘stalking horse’ leadership bid in the morning unless the Cabinet acts