Figures showing record referrals of individuals suspected of terrorist tendencies are truly horrific. Latest figures show almost 10,000 were reported to the Government anti-terror programme Prevent, topping a ten year high.
More worrying is the fact hundreds of children under ten years old were referred to the anti-terror programme, set up in 2015. But on a more positive note, they do also mean that the system is probably working in preventing radicalisation.
It could mean more people are aware of Prevent. And it may also indicate Prevent has matured into a system that processes its referrals efficiently, since it appears to have embraced a massive increase – all people who will be de-radicalised.
As with any government system there are pitfalls and people fall through the net, sometimes with horrific consequences. As with Axel Rudakubana, who killed three girls at a dance class and tried to murder eight others as well as two adults. He was referred to Prevent three times but his case was closed over a lack of clear ideology driving his murderous nature.
Recently the killer, sentenced to 52 years, was moved from HM Belmarsh Prison to Broadmoor psychiatric hospital, in Berkshire. For all those who think the word “child” in these studies means ‘less harmful,” it is worth remembering Rudakabana was 17 years-old, technically a minor.
Fresh figures reveal that the scheme which aims to stop people turning to terrorism, saw referrals rise 39% from 7,408 in the previous 12 months. A record 10,293 referrals were made to Prevent for 9,957 people in the year to September – the highest number of referrals in a single year since records began in 2015.
The spike comes after officials noted a sustained significant increase in referrals in the wake of Rudakabana’s 2024 attack. This may have been boosted by twisted claims by the far-right that Rudakabana’s crime was in some way related to the migrant crisis. Inflammatory rhetoric from Nigel Farage and Tommy Robinson also may have contributed toward a reaction as riots broke out across the country in the wake of the attack. Many children were spotted on marches and demonstrations, adding to the imagery of the crisis affecting all generations.
Where age was known, 11 to 15-year-olds made up the largest proportion of Prevent referrals (3,655 or 36%), followed by 16 to 17 year-olds (1,379 or 13%), the Home Office said. Deeply worrying, some 393 referrals (4%) were for children aged 10 or under. But, again, there may be a positive take away from this in that the earlier the professionals can get to the people being referred, the better.
However the figures also would suggest that the far-right radicalisation came from not just online but older and perhaps angry family members twisting the minds of children. The figures published show 2,103 Prevent referrals were because of concerns over extreme right-wing ideology (20% of the total), up from 1,480 in the previous 12 months, while there were 860 referrals (8%) about Islamist extremism, down from 945.
Far-right tendencies are burgeoning and will be prominent in the future but it cannot be assumed that the risk of Islamist terror is decreasing. They may mean that far-right tendencies are more noticeable when there is a very anger-making issue, such as claims about migrants.
More than half (56%) of referrals were for individuals with no identified ideology, which means there are likely out there more people drawn to violence who have not yet found their cause. This has happened before, as in the case of senior British Islamic State member Alexanda Kotey and his terrorist friends Mohammed Emwazi – AKA Jihadi John – and Al-Shafee al-Sheikh.
Kotey told me during an interview in prison in Syria that he was fascinated by real beheading videos when he was a young teenager in west London. If he had been accessed by Prevent then, perhaps he could have been cured of his violent tendencies before Islamic State got their claws in him.
His story, now languishing for decades more in an agonisingly boring Supermax Prison in Colorado , US, could be one for the de- radicalisation programme. If only someone had got to him in time he would not be spending what is likely to be the rest of his life staring at a white wall, alone for 23 hours a-day, except for a tiny TV. And the ethnicity of referrals is also interesting, with 68% described as white, 18% Asian and eight per cent black, massively making a lie of far-right claims that Afghans, Arabs from the Middle East are more likely to launch terror attacks.