Labour faces elections apocalypse in Wales as ballot exhibits nationalists Plaid and Reform surging – however Farage’s occasion is ready to be shut out of energy
Labour faces an apocalyptic political reckoning in Wales that will see the party of government for more than 20 years collapse to become the fourth-largest party in the Senedd, a new poll suggests.
First Minister Eluned Morgan could see her party reduced from its current 29 seats to just eight in a May election that would allow nationalists Plaid Cymru and the Greens take power in Cardiff.
The poll by YouGov for ITV Wales also shows Nigel Farage‘s Reform UK is on course to become the main opposition party, despite not yet having a leader in the country.
However the numbers suggest it will fall way short of taking power itself, even with Conservative support.
The poll shows Labour and the Conservatives, the current two largest parties in the current 60-seat chamber, will be reduced to little more than a dozen seats between them after an election that increases the size of the assembly to 96.
The survey suggests a radical realignment of politics is underway, with the May vote, taking place at the same time as election for the Scottish Parliament and local elections in England, heaping yet more pressure on Sir Keir Starmer.
It could also have far reaching consequences for the UK. As well as the SNP being expected to retain power in Scotland, the leader of Plaid Cymru has said his party would use time in government to make the case for Welsh independence.
The poll by YouGov for ITV Wales also shows Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is on course to become the main opposition party, but fall way short of taking power itself, even with Conservative support.
Speaking at a press conference, leader Rhun ap Iorwerth said he hoped to move Wales on to the ‘road to independence’.
He said: ‘Everybody in Wales knows that I support Wales being an independent nation.
‘The manifesto will spell out how we will want to use our time in government to make the case for how we could do things differently in Wales, how we can set a different trajectory for us by taking more levers of power into our hands.
‘You can call that independence now, you can call it the road to independence, whatever, but we have business to do right now, on health, education, on families, on jobs, on the environment, on farming.’
The party leader has already ruled out a referendum in the first term of a Plaid government.
‘It is in the hands of the people of Wales,’ Mr ap Iorwerth added.
‘My job is to try to show leadership and bring people with us… But we do that at the same time as getting to grips with those other issues.’
Speaking at a press conference, Plaid leader Rhun ap Iorwerth said he hoped to move Wales on to the ‘road to independence’ if he becomes first minister
