Keir Starmer’s Labour heading in the right direction for ‘historic losses’ in London strongholds held for many years
The left-wing Green Party, which currently controls no councils in the 32 London boroughs up for grabs on May 7, could emerge as the biggest party in four local authorities
Keir Starmer’s Labour faces a bruising night in the capital, major MRP poll suggests(Image: Anadolu via Getty Images)
Labour faces “historic losses” across its London heartland as the Green Party eats into its vote, a major poll shows just a fortnight before voters head to the polls.
According to YouGov’s MRP survey, Keir Starmer’s party will maintain the biggest vote share in 15 councils – down by six compared to the 2022 borough elections.
Meanwhile the left-wing Green Party, which currently controls no councils in the 32 London boroughs up for grabs on May 7, could emerge as the biggest party in four local authorities. They are areas Labour has been in power for decades, including Hackney, Lambeth, Waltham Forest and Lewisham.
Nigel Farage’s right-wing Reform UK could also become the largest party on three suburban councils in London – Bromley, Havering, and Barking and Dagenham.
Across the capital as a whole, YouGov’s survey shows Labour on 26% of the vote – down 16% compared to the last borough elections in 2022 – and the Greens on 22%. It found the Tories on 17%, the Liberal Democrats on 15% and Reform UK on 14%.
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The pollster, which surveyed over 4,500 adults in London, said its results project a “seismic shift for local government in the capital, as well as historic losses for Labour, who are on course to lose councils they’ve held for decades”. But it warns many of the boroughs are tightly contested, “with multiple parties plausibly being victorious on 7 May.
It adds: “In our model’s median projections, Labour win the highest vote share on 15 councils, down from 21 at the 2022 local elections, while there are breakthroughs for the Greens and Reform UK, who lead (even if marginally so, in some cases) on four and three councils respectively, having never previously topped the poll on any council in London.
“The Conservatives remain ahead on five councils, relative to six at the last election, while the Lib Dems are set to win the most votes on four councils in our model’s central estimates.”
It comes as Keir Starmer braces for a bruising set of results across England in local council elections in just over a fortnight amid a slump nationally in the polls for Labour. Experts have warned Labour could lose “well over” 1,000 councillors on May 7.
Crucial elections will also take place on the same day in the devolved administrations of Scotland and Wales – where Labour is struggling to hold on to power.
Speaking to The Mirror earlier this month, Labour’s London Mayor, Sadiq Khan, said: “I think Londoners are considering voting for all five parties and there are five parties now I think they’re considering: Labour and the Conservatives, the Lib Dems, but also Greens and Reform,”
Asked about Labour voters choosing the Green Party as a protest vote, the mayor said: “Of course I can understand why people may lend their vote to somebody else. All I would say, in a respectful way is, public office isn’t about protest, it’s about service.
“So all I’d say, in a respectful way to Londoners flirting with protest is actually, look at the record of the last 20 months compared to the previous 14 years. Will you get more delivery locally with a council that believes in protest, or one that works with a Labour mayor and a Labour government?”
