‘Number one pandemic risk’ is ‘a lot worse’ than Covid or rat virus
Former WHO chief scientist Dr Soumya Swaminathan has warned H5N1 bird flu is now among the top pandemic threats, with human cases historically far deadlier than Covid
People aboard the Dutch Hantavirus-hit cruise ship MV Hondius docked at the port of Rotterdam on May 18, 2026(Image: ANP/AFP via Getty Images)
A worrying virus is topping the list of pandemic threats, and it’s not Covid or hantavirus. Former World Health Organisation (WHO) chief scientist Dr Soumya Swaminathan has warned that influenza viruses, particularly H5N1 bird flu, is “very worrying” because human infections have historically had a far higher death rate than Covid.
Bird flu has reportedly resurfaced in India, with new cases found across several states in early 2025, after the last recorded detections in December 2023. “The influenza viruses are actually number one on the list of viruses that pose pandemic threats. Coronaviruses are also up there,” Dr Soumya Swaminathan said.
She added: “And H5N1 in particular is very worrying, because when it does happen in humans, it has quite a high mortality.”
She told News18: “Unlike Covid, which has a mortality of less than 1%, H5N1 in humans has a mortality which is much, much higher.” Dr Swaminathan continued: “Once it’s in mammals, it means that the virus has already adapted itself to survive in mammals and spread from one to another.
“It could be a matter of time before there are further mutations and it adapts to become a human virus, just like SARS-CoV-2 ultimately developed some mutations which enabled it to jump to humans and cause human-to-human transmission.” The pandemic risk is substantial, News18 reported.
Dr Swaminathan said: “If that happens, it’s an extremely serious situation, extremely serious. And it could be a pandemic that’s much worse than the coronavirus pandemic.
“So this is why we need to track it, there needs to be surveillance. And again, it needs to be across sectors.
“But we also need to develop the tools. We need vaccines.
“We have got some antiviral therapeutics like oseltamivir that act against H5N1, but we need much more R&D here.”
What is the bird flu?
Bird flu, also known as avian influenza, is an infection caused by type A influenza viruses that mainly affect birds. It is usually associated with wild waterfowl and poultry, but it has drawn growing international concern because of its wider spread into mammals and the small number of human infections that have been recorded.
Globally, health agencies say the overall risk to the general public remains low, but they are monitoring the situation closely. Concerns include sporadic human cases, the emergence of new strains and signs the virus is adapting to mammalian hosts.
Human trials of a bird flu vaccine began in April 2026, marking a significant step in preparedness. In people, symptoms typically develop between one and 10 days after exposure.
They can range from mild flu-like illness to severe disease. Common symptoms include fever, cough, sore throat and muscle aches.
In the UK, the UK Health Security Agency has repeatedly said the risk to the public is very low, but outbreaks in birds are managed through biosecurity rules and local restrictions when needed. Although bird flu rarely spreads from person to person, experts warn the virus’ continued circulation, and its ability to jump into mammals.
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