Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina will meet for a 15th time in what promises to be a superb Australian Open final – and if ever a tournament needed a thrilling conclusion, it is this one.
Thus far, up to and including Thursday’s semi-finals – a late burst from Jessica Pegula aside – this has been one of the worst Grand Slam fortnights in living memory. There has simply been a startling lack of close matches; a dearth of jeopardy, drama or tension.
Let us start with the women’s draw. From the fourth round onwards there have been 14 total matches – and all but one have been won in straight sets. None of the four semi-finalists had dropped a set in the entire tournament, the first time that has happened for over 30 years, since Roland Garros 1995.
The men’s event has been just as bad, although that may yet be redeemed by Friday’s semis between the top four seeds: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev and Jannik Sinner vs Novak Djokovic. From the fourth round onwards there have been two four-setters and the rest in straights.
Why has it all been so processional? One reason is likely the heat. Things have calmed down recently but there has been a string of 40°C-plus days – not easy conditions in which to fight one’s way back into a match. On the men’s side, the brilliance of Sinner and Alcaraz is a factor of course, they have not been dropping many sets anywhere recently.
The lack of drama in the women’s draw is more of a surprise, given the general strength in depth. One factor has been that Coco Gauff and Iga Swiatek, while generally brilliant, are also suffering from mental fragility right now – so when they are on they can steamroller, but as soon as cracks appear they can crumble, as they did in the quarters.
After a processional tournament, the Australian Open is gearing up for what is set to be a gripping women’s singles final between Aryna Sabalenka (pictured) and Elena Rybakina
World No 5, Rybakina, advanced to the finals after beating US star Jessica Pegula 3-6, 6-7(7-9)
Sabalenka (left) has a narrow 8-6 lead in the head-to-head, but was most recently beaten by Rybakina (right) in the WTA Finals in November
Another explanation is that Rybakina and Sabalenka are such supreme frontrunners, as they proved again on Thursday.
The vital moment in Sabalenka’s 6-2, 6-3 win against Elina Svitolina came in the fourth game when umpire Louise Azemar Engzell made the very rare call of hindrance against the world No 1. Sabalenka mishit a forehand that looked to be looping long but dropped in, and Engzell interpreted her slightly strangled grunt as a cry of frustration which put Svitolina off.
Sabalenka demanded a video review but the umpire stuck to her guns and it felt like that decision, in theory in Svitolina’s favour, actually cooked her goose.
Sabalenka is always dangerous but, by God, you wouldn’t like her when she’s angry. She flicked her switch into beast mode and rampaged into a fourth consecutive Australian Open final – the first woman to do so since Martina Hingis made six in a row up to 2002.
On that incident, Sabalenka said: ‘I think it was the wrong call, but whatever, she really – how do I say in a nice way? – she really pissed me off and it helped me. I was more aggressive.
‘So if she ever wants to do it again, I want to make sure she’s not afraid of it. Go ahead, call it. It’s going to help me!’
The second semi, won by Rybakina 6-3, 7-6 over Pegula, was characterised by almost non-stop chatter from both coaching boxes. Pegula looked tense from the start but so did her coach Mark Merklein.
There was plenty of advice from the Bahamian on when to stand on return, how to adjust her misfiring forehand – but surely not enough of the transmission of calming energy which is surely more important mid-match than technical instruction.
However, Sabalenka (pictured) beat Rybakina in the final of the 2023 Australian Open 6-4, 3-6, 4-6
Rybakina (pictured) may be No 5 in the world, but given Coco Gauff and Iga Swiatek’s struggles, there is no doubt that the two best players will do battle on Saturday
Pegula looked sick of him by the end and sick of Rybakina too, but from 5-3 down she saved three match points and had a couple of shots to force a deciding set – remember those? – but Rybakina snuffed out her resurgence. What a player the 2022 Wimbledon champion is.
Look up effortless power in a tennis lexicon and expect to see the Kazak’s impassive face peering back at you; look up how to hit a serve in a manual and there should be a breakdown of her economical but deadly action.
She may be down at No 5 in the rankings but – given the struggles of Gauff and Swiatek – there is no doubt we will see the two best players in the world do battle on Saturday.
Who will win? That is not easy to say. Sabalenka has a narrow 8-6 lead in the head-to-head, including a razor-tight final here in 2023, but Rybakina won their last meeting in the World Tour Finals in Saudi Arabia.
They have alternated wins back and forth across their last nine meetings, and with head on the block I would predict that trend continues with a Sabalenka victory.