Summer holidays outside of the UK could be heavily impacted by the ongoing Iran crisis, with a leading aviation expert claiming that even if the war did end, the issue could go on and on . . . and on
Europe has been issued a stark warning over flights – they will not depart and fuel tanks will be “completely dry”. While the ongoing negotiations between Iran and the United States roll on, the worldwide fuel crisis continues with seemingly no end in sight.
And one expert has now warned that even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens as normal in the next few weeks, the crisis will not even for a long, long time – and it could cause chaos during the much-needed Summer holiday period. Speaking to Russia’s Moskovskij Komsomolets news outlet, aviation expert Roman Gusarov warned that the pain is going to go on for the foreseeable future.
He said: “No, it’s not exaggerating. We see that the situation around the Strait of Hormuz isn’t improving, and could get worse.
“There’s no more aviation fuel on the global market, and accumulated reserves are practically depleted. For example, in Europe, two-month reserves have already been exhausted.
While airlines previously reduced flights primarily due to the high cost of kerosene, now these reductions may be due to a physical shortage.
“And we’re talking about much larger quantities. If the European Union loses even 30% of its previous fuel consumption, then virtually every third aircraft will be grounded. This would be a huge blow not only to the aviation market.”
World leaders have tried to alleviate fears, with various UK government ministers claiming that everything is fine and nothing serious is happening – not that anyone believes them.
And it seems that Mr Gusarov is adding fuel to the fire (no pun intended) with his comments, and has also laid out how this impacts industries outside of just the aviation sector. It could mean that the products you see on supermarket shelves from other countries, or even items you order online from outside the UK could be hit.
He said: “Aviation isn’t just about passengers. Yes, airlines, the tourism market, hotels, restaurant – the entire hospitality industry – will suffer. Tourists simply won’t fly to their destinations.”
But planes also transport huge volumes of cargo between Europe and Asia. “Proposals are already being discussed to redistribute fuel to cargo carriers, taking it away from passenger flights.
“This impacts the delivery of goods, mail, and online orders. Many shipments are transported not only on cargo planes but also in the baggage compartments of regular passenger flights. Therefore, problems in aviation quickly begin to impact the entire global economy. The crisis has already begun. And even under a favourable scenario, its consequences will be felt until at least the fall.
“A tanker has to reach a European port, the oil has to reach a refinery, be processed into kerosene, and only then be delivered to airports. That’s a minimum of two to three weeks. And compensating for the shortfall already in place will take months. You can’t instantly increase production, the number of tankers, or infrastructure capacity.”
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