Keir Starmer now faces FOUR essential choices from QUITTING to preventing on
Keir Starmer is running out of options as pressure continues to mount on the embattled Prime Minister – The Mirror takes a look at the four scenarios that could play out in No10
Keir Starmer is running out of options as calls mount for him to quit.
More than 70 Labour MPs have called for for him to go or set out a timetable for his departure. And he was rocked by ministerial resignations on Tuesday. The resignation of Home Office minister Jess Phillips – a well-established Labour figure – was a key blow.
There are a handful of scenarios that could play out in Downing Street – and none are particularly attractive to the PM. As it stands, things remain unpredictable and momentum could either quickly ramp up against Mr Starmer or fizzle out.
The Mirror takes a look at what could happen next.
READ MORE: Keir Starmer live: Jess Phillips resigns in major blow to PM as he fights to stay in powerREAD MORE: All the Labour MPs calling for Keir Starmer to quit – find out if your MP is one of them
1. The PM holds firm
Keir Starmer’s first option is to hold firm – and try to flush out his rivals. This is the scenario he’s currently chosen.
As he opened Cabinet on Tuesday meeting, the PM defied calls for him to quit – and said the Labour Party’s process for challenging a leader has not been triggered. In other words, he issued a warning: I will not bow down and if you want to challenge me, then do it formally.
Under Labour’s rules, a leadership contest can only be triggered if the party’s leader resigns or if a formal challenger to the leader gets support of 20 per cent of MPs. There are currently 403 Labour MPs – so 81 of them would have to get behind one candidate for a race to begin. So until someone formally challenges the PM and gets the backing, there is no formal leadership race (unless Mr Starmer resigns).
The PM has the King’s Speech on Wednesday, where he will set out the legislative agenda for the next parliamentary session. If it goes ahead – as is expected – Mr Starmer will be under pressure to reveal a game-changing package of policies to change the tide.
2. The PM quits
For now, the PM says he’s staying on. But in the end, it might not be his choice.
As of 1pm on Tuesday, Mr Starmer has suffered some resignations from ministers, as well as some ministerial aides. When Boris Johnson was ousted as PM, the turning point was the resignations of his then Chancellor Rishi Sunak and Home Secretary Sajid Javid.
In this instance, it’s also likely that Mr Starmer will only quit if his top team turns against him. Loyalists including Pat McFadden, Liz Kendall, Steve Reed, and Peter Kyle, have come out swinging for the PM, but it’s whether other Cabinet ministers break ranks and call for him to stand down.
There’s also a question of whether more junior ministers quit. One government source suggested Miatta Fahnbulleh, who was the first to quit as a minister, might not trigger a domino effect in resignations. They said: “I also understand that the vast majority of junior ministers are frustrated by the actions of Miatta.” But other sources suggest more ministers will take the leap and call on the PM to go.
Other insiders say there are whispers of a “groundswell of backbenchers mobilising” against those who have called for the PM to go. It’s unclear yet whether Mr Starmer’s supporters will be able to organise enough to match the volume of his critics.
3. He sets out a timetable for leaving
Another option for the PM is to agree to set out a timetable for his departure – as many Labour MPs are demanding. Essentially, this is the same as Mr Starmer resigning – as he’s also likely have to set out a timetable for his departure if he quit outright.
Some see the timetable option as a strategy pushed by Andy Burnham supporters, as it would allow the Greater Manchester mayor time to try to find a safe seat and get elected as an MP in time for a leadership challenge.
But some MPs have cautioned this approach, warning that it would leave Mr Starmer as a powerless “lame duck” Prime Minister – especially during a time of intense global instability. The MP told The Mirror: “I think this managed transition thing is nonsense. As soon as you go down that route, you have a lame duck Prime Minister when we should be governing the country. It needs to happen now or not at all.”
But other MPs believe Mr Starmer’s time is up and there is no way for him to come back. As they put it, an “orderly transition”, is his most dignified way out.
4. It’s taken out of the PM’s hands
There’s also still a strong possibility that someone makes a formal challenge against Keir Starmer and gets the support of the 81 MPs needed to trigger a leadership contest.
If a race is triggered, Mr Starmer is automatically a candidate – and he’s expected to battle it out until the end. Asked if he would fight on if he faced a challenge, Mr Starmer told The Sunday Mirror: “I’m not going to walk away from the job I was elected to do in July 2024. Of course the results are tough, they’re really tough and I’m not sugar coating that.”
Reports have been swirling for some time that Wes Streeting has the backing of 81 MPs to trigger a race but there has not yet been any white smoke from the Healthy Secretary’s camp. Andy Burnham needs to find a safe Labour seat and win a by-election to become an MP before he can think about challenging the PM. He was blocked by Labour’s ruling body, the NEC, from standing in the Gorton and Denton by-election earlier this year. But the NEC’s position is said to be softening, opening the door for a return to Parliament for Mr Burnham.
Angela Rayner – the former deputy PM – is said to want Mr Burnham to take over – but will put herself forward if he doesn’t get re-elected as an MP in time. But an ongoing HMRC probe into her tax affairs – over which she was forced to resign – could cast a shadow over her campaign.
